Given how hard it is for a player picked in most 12-team leagues to totally bottom out, most busts will have held value somewhere. We were not, and are rarely going to, try and call shots on insane degradation of play. Instead, we’re looking at these players to see whether they met their ADPs, or whether the difference between ADP and final value was still worth the time.

With that in mind, let’s take a look back at last season’s predicted Busts to see where the hits and misses were.

Clint Capela

Results: Even fighting against the surge of Onyeka Okongwu, Capela managed to outdo his ADP handily with an early-middle round season.

Verdict: Clint Cap-L-a

Reasons: Full marks to Capela. Okongwu had all the momentum in the offseason but the veteran held strong, though his fantasy resurgence was largely due to a spike in his field goal percentage (and free throws, though they were still bad) that offset marginal dips in the counting stats. With players like this, it’s important to remember that they have a high perch to fall from. Capela doesn’t do a ton across the box, but his areas of specialty are remarkably strong, so any little dips will still end up delivering a reasonable season as long as he doesn’t crater. He also has a stat set that you can project fairly easily; you know what to expect even as he declines. Capela very much did not crater, and it also helped that the Hawks somehow made it through another season of major trade rumors without actually acting on any of them.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Results: Bogdanovic ended up right around his ADP, outrunning the specter of Atlanta’s new backcourt as well as a late start to the season.

Verdict: Tip your cap, L

Reasons: It was all working against Bogdanovic this past season, and he was already a player who got some favorable breaks in his past time with Atlanta. Him entering the season injured after undergoing knee surgery was enough of a red flag to push Bogdanovic down draft boards, but he was able to hit the ground running upon his return after a couple of bumps in the road shooting-wise. The addition of Dejounte Murray didn’t detract a ton from Bogdanovic’s playmaking output and he was able to get away with only slight downticks in most categories. This shouldn’t have worked at all, but it did, so fair play to Bogdanovic for holding onto 12-team appeal.

Jaden Ivey

Results: Ivey finished outside the top-150 and was a disaster in 9-cat.

Verdict: Easy W

Reasons: Ivey did a ton of good things in his rookie season, but producing fantasy value wasn’t one of them. In his defense, it’s not like he forced anyone to draft him. Players like this just need time to get a grip on the NBA game and there are major hurdles to fantasy appeal from the jump. Efficiency and turnovers were already looking like problem areas and the early exit of Cade Cunningham, while opening up a pathway for a huge rule, only exacerbated the issues. Sometimes unchecked minutes in a starring role are not good for fantasy value, and that’s what we saw here. Hopefully Ivey is the next in a long line of guards who hit the gas pedal in their sophomore efforts.

Julius Randle

Results: Randle was unable to meet his ADP, but not by enough for managers to be truly disappointed in the returns.

Verdict: Julius Rand-L

Reasons: It was not at all fun to watch Randle rack up his numbers, using iso possessions by the handful, but he got the numbers in the end. The real saving grace for him was that the addition of Jalen Brunson eased a lot of the offensive burden and put Randle in position to make his shots at a better clip. A big rise in efficiency led to an accompanying spike in points and Randle even set a new career-high in 3-pointers made, even though that shouldn’t necessarily be a goal for him. There was one big swing factor in Randle’s campaign, and he happened to nail it with big help from a reconstructed roster.

Christian Wood

Results: Wood hit his free throws.

Verdict: Push?

Reasons: Wood didn’t meet his ADP, but he still managed a top-100 season. Like we mentioned with Ivey above, this is another player who may be better suited to a streamlined role with limited usage, as his worst instincts rise to the top quickly when he’s treated as a go-to guy. Wood saw the expected downturn in playing time as a member of the Mavs but kept his stats at a reasonable level — the difference-maker for him was that he shot .772 at the charity stripe after going .623 and .631 in the previous two seasons. Had Wood continued to provide punt-worthy marks at the charity stripe this would’ve been an easy bust, but he came out of nowhere to hit those easy shots and stay afloat in the rankings.

Collin Sexton

Results: Sexton was not plugged in as the primary backcourt option for a surprisingly competitive Jazz team, and didn’t generate the volume needed to shine.

Verdict: Clear W

Reasons: Our hesitation with Sexton stemmed from the fact that he was coming off a major season-ending knee surgery, set to debut for a new team with a deep backcourt. The Jazz had every reason to ease him into action given their long-term goals, and then when they actually started winning games it became more difficult to change things up to let Sexton cook. The circumstances surrounding his high ADP made sense — young, talented player about to take on a big role for a rebuilding team — but that was already too aggressive to begin with considering his previous best season was a top-75/105 finish. Sexton was being drafted to duplicate those results, even off injury, in a new environment that can be hard to adjust to for score-first guards. A couple hamstring injuries basically wiped the second half of his season off the board, so managers who held out hope for a big finish weren’t even rewarded. Sexton finished as a top-200/240 guy despite being drafted in the middle rounds of many leagues.

RJ Barrett

Results: Barrett shot better from the field but made no real strides in his game.

Verdict: Predictable W

Reasons: Is there a proper setup that allows Barrett to be a major contributor of a successful fantasy team? Absolutely. Was that the case for most managers who drafted Barrett? Absolutely not. Like Randle above, Barrett benefited from Brunson pulling the strings on offense, but he felt a bit more of the squeeze in terms of volume. With no other real standout category besides points, that thin margin of error vanished, with Barrett finishing well outside the top-200. He was still an asset in points leagues and you could punt to his strengths, but Barrett needed some miraculous improvement across the board to have a puncher’s chance at meeting his ADP inside the top-100.

Russell Westbrook

Results: Westbrook managed a top-115 season in 8-cat but that was still about 40 spots back of his ADP, and he never stood a chance in 9-cat.

Verdict: Free Space

Reasons: The ADP that Westbrook’s name value delivers means he’s always going to be overdrafted from a pure value perspective. Perhaps the league’s most notable team jettisoning him from the roster dials this back a bit, but it was another easy call. You can construct a roster that allows Westbrook to be a legitimate help in fantasy leagues, but with him going as early as he did in drafts, it’s unlikely that things played out the way they needed to for most managers.

In Summary

Seems like a decent effort, with Christian Wood’s random free throw spike the only thing keeping us from some decisive victory. The market continued to push obviously flawed fantasy players up the draft board, and although not every pick you make is going to be a winner, it is always good to avoid a land mine — and not in the unpredictable form of someone getting injured. Remember, every player on the board does have the capacity to be a contributor, but you have to build out the rest of the roster in a way that works toward that goal. If not, you’re sitting with a player that’s detracting from whatever else you’ve built. In dodging potential busts, you’re simply getting out of your own way by making educated guesses.

Players who were outside the top-200 in 9-cat (per game) with ADPs around 125 or higher? Jalen Green, Westbrook, Sexton, Barrett, Paolo Banchero, Dillon Brooks, James Wiseman and John Wall. Overall, it would seem that the fantasy community is getting better at avoiding those huge, ‘blow up in your face’ busts so long as you can avoid the players who suffer major injuries. That makes our job harder and harder every year, but there’s fun in the challenge of it all.

There’s something beautiful about the simplicity; hitting on a sleeper communicates the basic idea that you knew your stuff better than your opponents. All of the players we picked as sleepers last year were available for every single one of your leaguemates, and if you snatched one (or more) of them up then you were just rolling in profits. Not everyone had the chance to pick Nikola Jokic, but everyone had multiple chances to select every player on this list. They weren’t all wins but we did get a couple nice values out of our callouts.

Standard Leagues

Onyeka Okongwu, C, Atlanta Hawks

Results: A top-100/75 (8/9-cat) season, with top-60 finishes in terms of total value, all without Okongwu truly hitting his ceiling.

Verdict: Huge W

Reason: Okongwu was a little bit of a stretch as a sleeper in that he was routinely being drafted as a late-round dart, but the obvious potential made him too appealing to ignore for selection here. Anyone who nabbed Okongwu ahead of his ADP was given a game-changer, though he did require a little patience. The first couple months of the season saw Okongwu drawing the short end of a timeshare with Clint Capela, posting value that had him near the cut line in 12-team leagues in about 20 mpg. He found his footing and was aided by some absences from Capela, getting a run of 10 Capela-less games starting in January that helped him take a big jump up the standings. From there it was clear that he needed to play more, and while he never got to author a true breakout it was enough to deliver a big season for fantasy GMs. Okongwu has a stat set that you can set your watch to, and even on his quieter nights he was getting good minutes and producing rebounds and blocks on a strong field goal percentage. Add it all up and you have a middle-round guy that was being drafted at flier prices.

Jalen Smith/Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Indiana Pacers

Results: Smith and Jackson, the heir apparents in the Indiana frontcourt, ended up outside the top-200 with their long-term futures suddenly up for debate.

Verdict: Rick Carlis-L

Reason: The Pacers just didn’t do what we thought they would. They were supposed to keep tanking and let the kids run wild, especially after re-signing Smith in free agency to start at power forward. Instead, the Pacers ended up being pretty competent, and the long-rumored trade of Myles Turner never came to pass — he actually signed an extension with Indiana after it looked like he’d be headed elsewhere for the past three seasons. With Smith getting off to a slow start and eventually losing his spot to Aaron Nesmith, plus the Pacers’ sudden abundance of rotation-caliber guards and forwards, both Smith and Jackson ended up at the edge of the rotation, and at times out of it entirely. At times it felt like Rick Carlisle was hunting for reasons to play anyone else, but at the end of the day Smith and Jackson couldn’t maintain the momentum they established at the end of 2021-22 and got lost in the shuffle.

Isaiah Hartenstein, C, New York Knicks

Results: Hartenstein finished just below full-time roster status in 12-team leagues despite cementing himself as a quality NBA player.

Verdict: Mild L

Reason: Tom Thibodeau’s rotation continued to be a tough nut to crack, and although Hartenstein quickly established himself as an every-night player who deserved a decent role, he could never prove a real threat to Mitchell Robinson. Credit Robinson for becoming an improved NBA player as well. It looked like Hartenstein was ready for rocket fuel after posting 16-8-4 in 40 minutes on opening night, but he settled into a modest career-high of 19.8 mpg. The real issues? Hartenstein’s field goal percentage and blocks dipped, carving off a few rounds of value. He remained a solid option to round out deep-league rosters, and there’s also the fact that the Knicks generally looked pretty good with him on the floor, but for our purposes Hartenstein fell short of a passing grade.

Caleb Martin, F, Miami Heat

Results: Martin finished right around his ADP as his stats remained fairly level despite an increase in playing time.

Verdict: Push — but imagine if the playoffs counted?

Reason: Martin did get the bigger role we projected for him, but a dip in efficiency plus a decline in his per-minute output of defensive stats kept him locked into late-round value. There were spurts of something more throughout the season but Martin was ultimately unable to grab hold of must-start status in fantasy. The playoffs served as his real coming out party, with Martin catching fire from the 3-point arc and logging huge minutes as one of Miami’s most trusted hands at forward. Unfortunately for us, those stats won’t count towards his fantasy value, meaning fantasy GMs basically got what they paid for considering his ADP.

Tari Eason, F, Houston Rockets

Results: The market got very excited about Eason, understandably so, but he wound up floating just above the cut line for most of the year.

Verdict: Push

Reason: It was trouble from the jump when we found out that Bruno Fernando would start over Alperen Sengun on opening night, as it pointed to the notion that the Rockets wouldn’t necessarily make an effort to showcase their top young talent. It wasn’t all that bad, as Eason eventually found his way into regular minutes, and managers who drafted him as the cherry on top of a well-rounded roster were probably happy with the returns. Eason only had 15 games without a steal or block this season and looked every bit the stat magnet that he proved to be in college, with his role increasing from month to month as the Rockets sank in the standings. He wasn’t quite the difference-maker everyone was hoping to snag late in drafts, but 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks per game is hard to wave away as a disappointment. Like the rest of the Rockets, we’ll be watching to see how Eason reacts to a coaching staff that will try and run a tight ship — players who rack up big defensive numbers while constantly freelancing could be looking at a big adjustment period.

Deep Leagues

Jaylen Nowell, G, Minnesota Timberwolves

Results: Nowell dropped outside the top-250 and the Wolves gave up on him around midseason.

Verdict: Jaylen Nowe-L

Reason: Things got off to a roaring start as Nowell averaged 16.2 points and 1.8 triples on .471 shooting through his first five games, but it was all downhill from that point on. Even with the long-term absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, the Wolves piled minutes onto other bench options and Nowell didn’t help his own case with some wayward 3-point shooting. Falling from .394 to .298 from the arc was too much to overcome, especially when you’re supposed to be a microwave scorer. When the shots stopped falling, Nowell’s minutes started to dip, and that was all she wrote.

Zach Collins, F/C, San Antonio Spurs

Results: Collins finished the season as a late-round value, but those who actually had him rostered made out like bandits down the stretch.

Verdict: Clean W

Reason: In our Sleepers article, we wrote: “It’s a good developmental environment for him and the potential for a Jakob Poeltl trade at some point means that we could see Collins playing huge minutes by the end of the year. Health will always be a concern, but the variety of Collins’ production gets him close to the top-200 even in a strict backup role. Roll the dice at the end of 16-team drafts and don’t be surprised if he ends up going from useful presence to must-start guy over the course of the campaign.”

That’s exactly what happened, and the only thing slowing Collins down from an even bigger finish was the Spurs messing around with his own workload and yo-yoing him out of the lineup in their quest to maximize lottery odds. From the deadline onwards, Collins was a top-40 player in per-game value, with averages of 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 3-pointers per game on .494 shooting.

Dean Wade, F, Cleveland Cavaliers

Results: Wade battled injuries and the Cavs, suddenly in win-now mode, weren’t willing to wait for him to get back up to speed.

Verdict: Hot start but an L

Reason: Wade had us feeling optimistic after a good start to the year that saw him post top-170/200 value through the end of November, but injuries started stacking up and left him playing catch-up for the rest of the campaign. He played 24.9 mpg in that early window, enough for him to deliver usable numbers in rebounds, steals, blocks and triples on a solid mark from the field. Wade only played in 28 games from December 1 onward, however, so we never got a real look at how he would’ve held up over a full season. As the Cavs climbed up the standings their rotation tightened, and although Wade is the type of guy that would’ve really lengthened their bench, Cleveland was unable to give him the time necessary to shake off all that rust.

Gabe Vincent, G, Miami Heat

Results: Vincent finished as a top-250 value and saw very little movement in his stat line despite a more secure role.

Verdict: Swing and a miss

Reason: It seems like the Heat can always turn an unheralded guard into a real contributor, and although Vincent proved as much on the court, it never led to sustained fantasy success. He set a new career-high in playing time but more availability from Kyle Lowry meant fewer starts, and Vincent had fewer opportunities to get into a real rhythm overall. He proved to be an extremely hot and cold value thanks to the high variance in his shooting percentage, but those wild swings made him tough to roster consistently in builds that valued well-roundedness. Vincent was generally a safe pick for some steals and triples, but you needed to catch lightning in a bottle to get more than that.

John Konchar, G/F, Memphis Grizzlies

Results: Konchar didn’t take a huge leap forward in terms of playing time but the stat set carried him to a solid deep-league effort.

Verdict: A weird win, we’ll take it

Reason: Konchar didn’t get up to the 24 mpg we were hoping for, but he still established a new career-high with 20.7 mpg across 72 appearances. He finished as a top-215/180 value in 8/9-cat formats, which lines up with what we wrote last year: “If he can get closer to 24 mpg, Konchar should be able to sail into the top-200 with enough multi-cat upside to think he could be a top-180 asset with some good luck.” The real kicker is that Konchar did all that despite his efficiency plummeting. He shot just .431 from the floor, the first of his four seasons under .500 in that department. The smattering of stats across the box was still there, and if Konchar was able to convert his looks at the expected rates we’d have a borderline top-150 guy on our hands. As it stands, Konchar was a win, but almost despite himself.

Deep Cut Special

Jalen Johnson, F, Atlanta Hawks

Results: Preseason talk about Johnson taking on a larger role was technically correct, but his playing time couldn’t support legitimate value.

Verdict: Maybe next year…

Reason: The Hawks had another season with lots of drama that led to a coaching change, and enough depth above Johnson on the depth chart to keep him held down. He did play in 70 games and was able to drop 5.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.2 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 0.5 blocks in only 14.6 mpg, but that wasn’t enough to carve out more than top-300 appeal.

In Summary

Not our best year ever with only three clear wins, but managers shouldn’t have been too upset about the numbers from Martin and Eason, and even Hartenstein was viable in the proper builds. Even so, the magnitude of wins on Okongwu and Collins in particular made it another fruitful season. That’s our bare minimum expectation around here, however, so we’re going to try and up those numbers this time around.

For me, it is very important for each and every one of my teams to have a certain vibe. Some of this is dependent upon the format, some of it is dependent upon whether I’m entering into an already-established league or joining one that’s starting from scratch. Sometimes, it takes shape straightaway on draft night; other times, it takes a few weeks of trades and waiver wire action to get things just right. But there are most definitely certain guys I often to always target, because their vibes are simply impeccable (in my opinion), and I’m willing to draft them over more vanilla dudes who might have “a better ranking.” There are also some dudes that I will never ever roster under any circumstance.

I’d like to just throw this out there as a concept for some of you to try. Don’t do it in every league, like I do, because you might end up hating this approach. But maybe give it a shot in a lower-stakes league — you know, like a free one or one you play in with friends and/or family. See what happens. Maybe you come to the same conclusion that I have, which is that winning is, of course, the main objective, but it’s far more fun to win when you actually like rooting for the players on your roster than it is when they kind of make you cringe.

I decided it might be an enjoyable exercise for me (and for you) if I constructed ten teams in the mold of mixtapes, inspired by specific genres. Since the standard go-to number of roster spots, for whatever reason, tends to be 13, I will select 13 players per team. I will not limit myself to bullshit position designations, since the NBA doesn’t. If you want to have a team that is mostly composed of wings, you can — just ask the new-look Brooklyn Nets.

Disclaimer: I chose not to go outside the realm of actual fantasy-relevant players; although, there are plenty of players still in the league that could have made it onto some of these mixtapes.

Okay, here we go!

Adult Contemporary

This group of grandparent-approved guys were the ones who told on you for telling naughty jokes on the playground, they were always the first ones to raise their hands to answer any question in any class from sixth grade on, and they think Stephen A. Smith has a point when he tells professional athletes to “stay off the weeeeeeed.” Many of them seem like genuinely well-intentioned dudes, but many they often just can’t help themselves from doing corny things: Steph Curry is a NIMBY bro with a wannabe influencer wife, LeBron only reads the first page of books and retroactively suggests that he had bizarre premonitions, Buddy Hield tweets, “Thank God For Life, Health and Strength” every single day, Chris Paul bitches and moans every chance he can get, and D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns are the world’s worst (or best, depending on your perspective) podcast guests ever. If you drink milk as an adult, you might not think there is anything weird about any of this behavior.

Deandre Ayton

Steph Curry

Anthony Davis

Spencer Dinwiddie

Tobias Harris

Buddy Hield

Al Horford

LeBron James

Khris Middleton

Chris Paul

Julius Randle

D’Angelo Russell

Karl-Anthony Towns

Afrobeat

The following players all have a specific, syncopated rhythm to their games — they can go from being a bit herky-jerky to smooth, like a Parliament cigarette. They are each consistent in their ways, often chugging along and then catching fire at any moment. They can dazzle you with handles or footwork or pull up from almost anywhere on the court and catch you off guard with some freeform flair or with surprisingly straightforward get-it-done work ethic.

Bradley Beal

Mikal Bridges

Kevin Durant

Anthony Edwards

Joel Embiid

Paul George

Brandon Ingram

Kyrie Irving

Kawhi Leonard

Damian Lillard

Donovan Mitchell

Jamal Murray

Jayson Tatum

Black Metal/Death Metal

These dudes are the grinders, the punishers, the unstoppables. They will coming charging at you like a lovelorn bull. They’ll set fire to your well-conceived plans. They don’t give a shit about your feelings. They are on-court atheists, nihilistic about “the fundamentals.” They’ll tell your dad to STFU.

Steven Adams

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Clint Capela

Jalen Duren

Markelle Fultz

Aaron Gordon

Scoot Henderson

Jakob Poeltl

Bobby Portis

Mitchell Robinson

Jonas Valančiūnas

Robert Williams III

Zion Williamson

Classic Rock

If you’re a player with bad facial hair, you’re classic rock. If you’ve ever chewed tobacco, you’re classic rock. If you’ve ever owned a jean jacket, you’re classic rock. If you still use Facebook, you’re classic rock. If you don’t really turn the ball over, you’re classic rock. If when you’re at the doctor’s office, you check off “White/European,” you’re probably classic rock.

Bojan Bogdanovic

Malcolm Brogdon

Zach Collins

Rudy Gobert

Tyus Jones

Walker Kessler

Brook Lopez

Jusuf Nurkic

Kelly Olynyk

Michael Porter Jr.

Kristaps Porziņģis

Nikola Vucevic

Franz Wagner

EDM/House

These are the fellas who don’t talk too much talk. They’ve got a chill swagger to them. They’re pretty happy-go-lucky. They mostly just want to make fun plays happen and win ball games. Some of them can be a bit rough around the edges, but with enough repetition, they tend to grow on you.

Desmond Bane

Scottie Barnes

DeMar DeRozan

De’Aaron Fox

Darius Garland

Jerami Grant

Cameron Johnson

Kyle Kuzma

Tyrese Maxey

Trey Murphy III

Jordan Poole

Pascal Siakam

Anfernee Simons

Free Jazz

Free jazz is about intuition and inventiveness. These hoopers have an innate feel for the game. They see things that other players do not; they can make something out of nothing. They often make you question what you know or knew about basketball. There’s a lot of “how he do that” to their style of play. It’s a certain type of poetry that often is hard to put your finger on…

Jalen Brunson

Cade Cunningham

Luka Dončić

Josh Giddey

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Tyrese Haliburton

Nikola Jokic

Austin Reaves

Domantas Sabonis

Alperen Şengün

Amen Thompson

Ausar Thompson

Jalen Williams

Hardcore/Punk

Anarchy in the NBA! If you want grit, look no further. Diving on the deck, swatting shots from behind, suffocating players with intense, frenetic energy — these players give it their all, every second that they’re out there. When basketball minds mention a player’s motor, they’re usually talking about how he’s lacking. None of these homies are lacking in motor, that’s for sure. They play fast, they play hard, they play loud.

Jimmy Butler

Alex Caruso

Nicolas Claxton

Tari Eason

Draymond Green

Jrue Holiday

Herb Jones

Dejounte Murray

Marcus Smart

Jabari Smith Jr.

Matisse Thybulle

Fred VanVleet

Devin Vassell

Hip-Hop/Rap

Hip-hop/rap — clearly, the coolest genre; all of these guys are either cool or want to be cool. What is cool, or how cool, is often in the eye of the beholder. I’m not saying all of these guys are cool; you decide if they are and how much and how so.

LaMelo Ball

John Collins

Devin Booker

Jaylen Brown

Jordan Clarkson

James Harden

Tyler Herro

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Zach LaVine

Ja Morant

Terry Rozier

Russell Westbrook

Trae Young

IDM

This is not a style of basketball people who were born before, like, 1975 probably understand very well. None of these guys fit into any boxes you can get at Home Depot. Guards who rebound, forwards with handles, centers with court vision. Long scarves, bleached hair, slow-motion shooting mechanics. Good luck trying to explain how these guys play to your uncle.

Bam Adebayo

Kyle Anderson

O.G. Anunoby

Bruce Brown

Josh Hart

Chet Holmgren

Jaden McDaniels

De’Anthony Melton

Onyeka Okongwu

Shaedon Sharpe

Jeremy Sochan

Gary Trent Jr.

Victor Wembanyama

Yacht Rock

Very talented men who get the job done.

Jarrett Allen

Paolo Banchero

Wendell Carter Jr.

Mike Conley

Kevin Huerter

Lauri Markkanen

CJ McCollum

Evan Mobley

Keegan Murray

Klay Thompson

Myles Turner

Derrick White

Andrew Wiggins

Last Faceoff: Damian Lillard vs. James Harden

Fantasy Faceoff!

Franz Wagner vs. Scottie Barnes

Franz Wagner puts Scottie Barnes in the spin cycle pic.twitter.com/P4dsAv6prP

— hoops bot (@hoops_bot) March 5, 2022

PAST: Who was the better fantasy player?

2021-2022 Statistics

Wagner: 

15.2 PPG, 1.2 3PT, 4.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 1.5 TO, .468 FG%, .863 FT%

79 games, 1197 points, 96 3-pointers, 356 rebounds, 231 assists, 69 steals, 33 blocks, 119 turnovers, 456-of-975 field goals, 189-of-219 free throws

Barnes: 

15.3 PPG, 0.8 3PT, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 1.9 TO, .492 FG%, .735 FT%

74 games, 1134 points, 58 3-pointers, 557 rebounds, 256 assists, 80 steals, 55 blocks, 136 turnovers, 459-of-932 field goals, 158-of-215 free throws

Spoiler alert: Rookie of the Year generally equates to high fantasy value. Such was the case for Scottie Barnes in his debut season as he immediately became a valued contributor for the Raptors. However, let’s not forget that Wagner was an Opening Night starter in Orlando as well and immediately stood out among that group. The key difference between the two players? One experienced a lot more winning in their early career. Barnes and the Raptors more than doubled the Magic’s win total in the 2021-2022 season, which gave the 6’9” forward an edge with the media. Despite his obvious value to the present and future of the team, the recent champion Raptors arguably needed Barnes less than the Magic needed Wagner behind their solid core of two-way players like Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

It’s hard to earn looks in an established offense with veterans that are used to a steady shot diet but that’s exactly what Barnes did from the start. Wagner averaged almost exactly the same number of shots per game but did so on the team that would finish last in Offensive Rating by the end of the season. It follows that Barnes would make a higher percentage of his looks as the Raptors were generally able to create better opportunities for him to score. Once again, Wagner did actually keep almost exact pace with his peer in the scoring department. He actually held an advantage there with more 3-pointers and a significantly higher free-throw percentage on -surprise, surprise- identical volume. It was only once we started to widen the scope that it became clear where the pair really separated. Barnes won the assist battle by a narrow but not insignificant margin while holding the rebounds lead by a wide margin at around three more boards per game. On defense, it was another clean sweep, with Barnes’ 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks per game representing above-average marks and also eclipsing Wagner by fair margins. By the end of the year the voters took note of Barnes’ more universal value and named him the Rookie of the Year. It follows that he gets the nod here. After all, he matched Wagner’s strengths and outperformed him in so many other areas. What else could I say?

Verdict: Barnes

PRESENT: Who is the better fantasy player?

2022-2023 Statistics

Wagner: 

18.6 PPG, 1.6 3PT, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 2.1 TO, .485 FG%, .842 FT%

80 games, 1485 points, 130 3-pointers, 329 rebounds, 283 assists, 77 steals, 17 blocks, 167 turnovers, 542-of-1118 field goals, 271-of-322 free throws

Barnes: 

15.3 PPG, 0.8 3PT, 6.6 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 2.0 TO, .456 FG%, .772 FT%

77 games, 1179 points, 63 3-pointers, 512 rebounds, 371 assists, 83 steals, 61 blocks, 154 turnovers, 463-of-1016 field goals, 190-of-246 free throws

It was a whole new ball game in the respective sophomore seasons of Franz Wagner and Scottie Barnes. You may have read or heard that Barnes didn’t progress in his second year, which isn’t entirely true and even if true would still represent a valuable NBA player. There’s a difference between a disappointing season and a bad one. However, that was never an issue with Wagner. In fact, it was quite the opposite. The German wing surged forward with a three-point boost in his scoring average along with improved averages in treys, assists, steals and field goal percentage. It became clear that he was going to be pivotal to the Magic’s future as they build around 2022-2023 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero. This was and is true of Barnes with the Raptors but the Florida State product fell back in boards and field goal percentage while only showing improvement as a free throw shooter and playmaker with a 1.3 assist per game boost over last season. Otherwise, it was just more of the same production that earned him some pretty nifty hardware only a season earlier. Unfortunately, it was part of a Raptors season that was only noteworthy for how disappointing it was and that affected the narratives of individual players on the team.

Wagner definitely made a leap while Barnes was more or less treading water in the 2022-2023 season but what was the difference between them? Well, there are now clear leads for Wagner in several categories, as he proved to be a much better scorer, 3-point shooter and generally more efficient player than Barnes. In a standard four-game week, Wagner averaged about 13 more points and three more treys than Barnes. However, he remained notably worse in high-impact areas like rebounds, assists, and blocks. A tie is a tie but it’s notable that Wagner has basically caught up to Barnes in steals per game if only for the jump forward that it represents for him. If Barnes’s 0.1 steals per game lead represents a victory for him in that category then so too does his 0.1 turnovers per game advantage, but it’s not important enough to award him a win when the real impact of those slight advantages pales in comparison to the categories that Wagner wins. For me, it’s a 4-3 win for Wagner who had clear wins in points, treys, field goal percentage and free throw percentage with two draws in steals and turnovers, but don’t sleep on Barnes for what could be considered a split decision loss. 

Verdict: Wagner

FUTURE: Who will be the better fantasy player in 2023-2024?

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