NBA Draft Strategy – SportsEthos

2023-24 NBA Draft Guide: Punt Strategy and Builds

Keston Paul — Sat, 30 Sep 2023 14:35:40 +0000

Let’s get right into it.

What is punting?

Punting is a strategy used in category leagues. You cannot punt in a points league since it is based on a cumulative value of multiple statistics.

The essence of punting is to intentionally overlook or ignore a category or categories to boost your own players’ values. This allows you to gain value on your players whose weaknesses are no longer a liability, while allowing you to focus resources on less categories. You are attempting to gain an advantage over teams whose values may be spread thinner across more areas.

Punting is considered more effective for head-to-head category leagues since you only have to beat what is in front of you every week. In roto category leagues, you compete against the entire league in every category and that encourages you to build in a more balanced way.

What does punting do?

Let’s dissect my previous statement.

The essence of punting is to intentionally overlook and ignore a category or categories to bolster value in other areas.

If I remove the points category from my draft board, the value of players changes dramatically. Typically, you get a bunch of points at the beginning of drafts, but if you start off with Tyrese Haliburton (20.7 PPG last season) and Domantas Sabonis (19.1 PPG last season), you’d have to hunt some extra points later on to contend with teams who grabbed 25-to-30 PPG scorers like Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving to name a few.

Let’s be clear again. You don’t have to punt in that scenario as you can definitely make up the points. Hali gives you a nice start in 3PM, dimes, steals, FT% and was pretty good for a guard with .490 FG% last season. Sabonis was the second-best big for dimes last season and also gives you FG% plus rebounds. You can build on those categories to boost them further and then try to “recover” in blocks, which are available throughout the draft board based on early 2023-24 ADPs.

If you don’t worry about catching teams in that category, it opens up your flexibility. Since scoring is harder to find later in the draft, those low-scoring players with strong peripherals become more valuable to you. How about a guard/wing who gives you 11.6 PPG but 2.1 threes and 1.5 steals. Or a big whose 10.2 PPG does not matter because you’re getting 10 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and over .600 FG% (those are random numbers but think of De’Anthony Melton or Jakob Poeltl). Look at Draymond Green as well. Last season, Green gave you 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks, 7.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists, but his 8.5 points could be viewed as problematic for some teams. While others may worry that those players bring down their team’s scoring average, you don’t because you don’t care about points.

The other result of punting is a nice buffer or cushion for absences. If things go well, you could absorb an injury to a fairly good mid-round player or two and still be competitive. Early-round players will always be difficult to replace in most cases though. The purpose of punting is to make yourself a lot stronger in fewer categories, so if you dominate four and win another two 80% of the time and a seventh category half of the time, you’re in good business. To emphasize this, if you are getting 37-to-50 blocks per week and you lose Jaren Jackson Jr. (maybe 8-to-18 blocks individually factoring in variance). Let’s say you are facing the second-best blocks team and they get 35-to-45 blocks per week. You could make up maybe half of JJJ’s value by streaming and perhaps be able to sneak a win against them anyway. These are random numbers again, but it should paint the idea well enough.

Punts become more effective if your league has more categories, more teams or anything else which spreads resources thin. Focusing on specific areas could help more in those cases since you have less options to work with.

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Click here for the 2022-23 Punt Rankings to get a better idea of which players are worth targeting in punt builds

2023-24 NBA Draft Guide: High Mileage Report

Keston Paul — Wed, 20 Sep 2023 16:36:32 +0000

This piece has always been a fun way to bring you some insight on the old guys of the NBA. I wanted to add some extra sauce to the good work which was done by my predecessor, so I am putting my own spin on the article this year.

First, we are going to check out the mileage of fairly relevant fantasy players and try to derive information from it. Then, we’ll take a closer look at players in various age ranges with some heavy minutes under their belt. Given the new resting rules in place, it will be intriguing to see how some of these players are handled. We already know that vets aged 35-plus, or with 34,000 career minutes or 1000 career games can apply for exceptions to the resting policy. Also, you need to have been an All-Star in the previous three seasons (or in the current one) for the rules to apply as well. Another of our sparkling Ethos contributors will provide a detailed analysis of those rules in due time.

The data in the table below was taken from Basketball Reference.

Click here for the Active Leaders in Minutes Played.

The rankings for total minutes among active leaders were left the same, so you will see some gaps in between since we are focusing on more relevant players.

Notable High Mileage Players

COVID-19 shortened the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.
*In 2019-20, playoff teams played around 73-to-75 regular-season games, while non-playoff teams played about 64-to-68 games.
*The 2020-21 season was limited to 72 regular-season matchups.
*Age listed is from the end of the 2022-23 season.

GENERAL INFO CAREER MINUTES GAMES PLAYED ACROSS PAST 10 SEASONS
Rank Player Age Total Reg Ssn Playoffs 22-23 21-22 20-21* 19-20* 18-19 17-18 16-17 15-16 14-15 13-14
1 LeBron James 38 65747 54093 11654 55 56 45 67 55 82 74 76 69 77
2 Chris Paul 38 47227 41785 5442 59 65 70 70 58 58 61 74 82 62
4 Kevin Durant 34 42906 36181 6725 47 55 35 0 78 68 62 72 27 81
5 Russell Westbrook 34 41912 37552 4360 73 78 65 57 73 80 81 80 67 46
6 James Harden 33 40503 34753 5750 58 65 44 68 78 72 81 82 81 73
7 Kyle Lowry 37 38622 34331 4291 55 63 46 58 65 78 60 77 70 79
8 Al Horford 37 38239 32519 5720 63 69 28 67 68 72 68 82 76 29
9 DeMar DeRozan 33 37839 35471 2368 74 76 61 68 77 80 74 78 60 79
11 Stephen Curry 35 35794 30302 5492 56 64 63 5 69 51 79 79 80 78
12 Mike Conley 35 35439 32648 2791 67 72 51 47 70 12 69 56 70 73
16 Jrue Holiday 33 32652 30001 2651 67 67 59 61 67 81 67 65 40 34
17 Nicolas Batum 34 31552 29740 1812 78 59 67 22 75 64 77 70 71 82
18 Brook Lopez 35 31009 28565 2444 78 13 70 68 81 74 75 73 72 17
19 Paul George 33 30902 26680 4222 56 31 54 48 77 79 75 81 6 80
20 Damian Lillard 33 30400 27942 2458 58 29 67 66 80 73 75 75 82 82
22 Jimmy Butler 33 29513 25002 4511 64 57 52 58 65 59 76 67 65 67
23 Klay Thompson 33 29390 23560 5830 69 32 0 0 78 73 78 80 77 81
26 Harrison Barnes 31 28655 26418 2237 82 77 58 72 77 77 79 66 82 78
27 Kevin Love 35 28647 26330 2317 62 74 25 56 22 59 60 77 75 77
29 Eric Gordon 34 28242 26223 2019 69 57 27 36 68 69 75 45 61 64
30 Tobias Harris 30 28098 26054 2044 74 73 62 72 82 80 82 76 68 61
WordPress Tables Plugin
What can we learn?

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2023-24 NBA Draft Guide: Four Sophomores to Fade

Gabriel Pérez-Grill — Wed, 20 Sep 2023 06:14:16 +0000

For this installment, we will look at second-year players whose fantasy outlook for the upcoming season offers a number of question marks. Whether that be because of their current roles, or overall weaknesses in their games, I do not expect these players to sustain season-long standard-league value in 9-cat formats for next season. This is not a reflection on their long-term values, as these players can of course still improve, and could find themselves in different roles or even on different teams in the future. It is more of a reflection on what to expect from them for the 2023-24 season.

We will be analyzing four players in this article that were floating in and out of waiver wires last season and could provide top-120 value or better for stretches of the season. Especially during stretches in which their roles increase due to injury-related absences on their teams. However, I would not expect them to finish the season ranking inside the top-120 in per-game value. Due to this, I would rather not use one of my last draft picks in drafts to select one of these players and instead go for a selection late which will offer more reliable production. We will be looking at each player in-depth, looking at why their upside might be capped for the upcoming season. They will be listed according to their rank this past year, based on per-game averages in 9-cat formats.

Jeremy Sochan

2002-23 Rank (9-cat Per Game): 243rd
2022-23 Per Game Stats: 11.0 p/g, 5.3 r/g, 2.5 a/g, 0.8 s/g, 0.4 b/g, 0.6 3/g 26.0 m/g.
Average current ADP (Yahoo, ESPN, Fantrax) : 138.9

Other selections to consider instead around his current ADP in Drafts: Dennis Schroeder, Deni Avdija, Herbert Jones.

Sochan’s rookie season was full of inconsistencies due to a combination of nagging injuries and the fact that the Spurs were not looking to win a lot of games last year. Despite Sochan clearly needing game time to help his development, the Spurs would choose to sit him for a number of games as part of their tank job. He ended up only appearing in 56 games in 2022-23.
The weaknesses in Sochan’s game were apparent during his rookie campaign:
He still has a lot of work to do in order to improve his jump shot, which severely limits his fantasy upside at the moment. Sochan shot a terrible 24.6% from beyond the arc on 2.4 attempts per game. In addition to that, he only shot 69.8% from the free-throw line.
Sochan’s free-throw attempts became a viral sensation once he decided to attempt them one-handed after really struggling from the line to start the year. To his credit, it seemed to work for him as he started showing slight improvements in his percentages once he made the switch.

With the arrival of Victor Wembanyama to the team, Sochan could see himself relegated to a bench role next season. The Spurs might want to start “Wemby” at the four position next to Zach Collins to avoid him having to guard centers on the other team for most of his rookie season.
This means that one of Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson or Sochan would need to come off the bench. It seems unlikely to me that this would be Vassell, with a more realistic approach being keeping Sochan in the starting unit for his defensive versatility, while allowing Johnson to act as the primary scorer coming off the bench. Regardless, Sochan could see himself in a position in which he sees less usage than he did this past year.

Considering these factors, Sochan’s outlook to significantly improve next season seems premature. Dynasty managers should attempt to be patient with Sochan as he is a part of the young core the Spurs are trying to develop around Wemby moving forward. Although his lack of shooting ability can really have a negative impact on fantasy squads, making Sochan a tough play for the 2023-24 season.

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2023-24 NBA Draft Guide: Rookie Report

Keston Paul — Thu, 14 Sep 2023 04:44:23 +0000

Introduction

Rookies are typically overvalued in redraft fantasy leagues, as many struggle to leave a lasting impact in their inaugural season. Efficiency and turnovers are a common issue among guard and wing players, while bigs may get into consistent foul trouble or simply not be featured as they figure out how to hang in the NBA.

However, every once in a while, we have some gems who have both the talent and opportunity to put together standout fantasy seasons as a rookie. Before we take a look at the highly-regarded class of 2023, we should take a look back at how rookies fared in previous years to gain some extra insight.

I included Joel Embiid with the 2016 class since 2016-17 was his rookie season and I also included Ben Simmons with the 2017 class for the same reasons (2017-18 rookie year).

We have Chet Holmgren as someone to evaluate for the upcoming season and he falls into the same situation as those examples, so they are worthy inclusions in my book, even if some don’t regard them as true rookies.

History

Notes:
y-axis indicates number of rookies
Top-50 = player(s) who finished 1-to-50 (gradient yellow)
Top-75 = player(s) who finished 51-to-75 (red)
Top-100 = player(s) who finished 76-to-100 (black)
Top-150 = player(s) who finished 101-to-150 (blue)
All data gathered from Basketball Monster’s per-game rankings

Top-50 rookie seasons are extremely rare and it seems that they cluster in strong draft classes.
Karl-Anthony Towns has the best rookie season in this period, finishing as the No. 12 player on a per-game basis in the 2015-16, joined by Kristaps Porzingis who sneaks in as the 49th best player in that same year.
Joel Embiid is the lone top-50 representative for a poor 2016 class, while 2018-19 saw Deandre Ayton and Mitchell Robinson finishing inside the top-50.
The noteworthy trend is that all these players are bigs, as they don’t tend to have the efficiency issues of guards and wings. KAT and Embiid provided better-than-average skill sets for their position from the start. Porzingis had shooting to pair with his shot blocking, while Ayton and Robinson translated fundamental big man profiles to a high level. Ayton was a bit more balanced while Robinson depended on 2.4 BPG to carry his value.

Another notable pattern is that we don’t tend to see top-75 9-cat seasons in tandem with top-50 ones, as it generally shows that the top rookies who may fall into the 51-to-75 range in other years were simply a cut above in those instances, pushing higher up the ranks instead.

Wings and guards who get into the 51-to-100 range typically need to offset their efficiency issues with an above-league-average combination of at least two categories from points, assists or steals. Notable players who did this include Donovan Mitchell, Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball, Cade Cunningham and Lonzo Ball.

After this, the top-150 players feature a plethora of options and circumstances. Many are players who start slow and end the season well, either due to increased opportunity or personal growth (Mark Williams, Jalen Duren, Jabari Smith Jr. last year).
On the other hand, some may earn a consistent role early on with a single standout skill (Keegan Murray’s shooting for example) alongside some passable peripherals and they then hover in that range for most of the season.

Since 8-cat removes the turnover category, guards and wings who handle the ball a lot typically get a boost while bigs can take a hit.
Cade Cunningham gets a boost up the board to No. 48 (91st in 9-cat) in 2021-22, while both Luka Doncic (100th in 9-cat) and Trae Young (125th in 9-cat) find themselves as the 56th and 58th best players in 2018-19.

Mitchell Robinson notably declines from a top-50 player to No. 82 in 8-cat, since his low turnovers were one of his better categories.
In 2017-18, Donovan Mitchell climbs to 48th (54th in 9-cat) while Ben Simmons is 30th (51st in 9-cat). One other notable jump is Ja Morant in 2019-20, as he climbs from 135th in 9-cat to No. 73 in 8-cat. Paolo Banchero also goes from 211th to 136th last season, with efficiency being the limiter on his top-100 upside.

Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns maintain their top-50 status, as KAT only falls back four places to No. 16 and Embiid’s per-game value across his 31 appearances increases to No. 21 in 8-cat from 36th in 9-cat. Rookie Kristaps Porzingis doesn’t fall far from his 49th mark in 9-cat either, as he is No. 55 for 8-cat in 2015-16. So there isn’t much issue for the skilled bigs when you remove turnovers.

2023-24 Look Ahead

TOP-50 UPSIDE

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Read Next: Mark C.'s Dynasty Rookie Rankings

The Mystery Men: Yes, No, Maybe So?

Keith J. Varadi — Wed, 13 Sep 2023 05:03:39 +0000

There are certain basketball legends whose proper place in fantasy drafts is becoming increasingly difficult to determine, you know? Many of these players are what my SportsEthos colleague, Dan Besbris, likes to refer to as “the Old Men,” all of whom he has a certain fondness for – as do I, on some level. Whenever I think of the Old Men, I think of one of my all-time favorite scenes from one of my all-time favorite movies:

“Okay, like, the way I feel about the Rolling Stones is the way my kids are gonna feel about Nine Inch Nails, so I really shouldn’t torment my mom anymore, huh?”

This is a quote from Travis Birkenstock, the Sk8er Boi played by Breckin Meyer, in Clueless. But it’s seriously so true – everything is cyclical, and some things are just timeless. And what’s freaky is…guys like Al Horford are my age and are still killing it in the league (relatively speaking). I’ve legit been watching that man play basketball since I was a freshman in college. I’m not entirely sure what’s behind Dan’s fondness for these old heads – I’m assuming it has at least something to do with perceived value versus real value, which certainly makes sense. And I get that – and that appeals to me, too, duh – but for me, it has even more to do with the fact that I find it to be so amazing and admirable that they can still do what they do at our shared age, when, some days, it hurts my skinny, arthritic ass just to walk around the streets of Los Angeles.

Anyway, it’s not just old men who are questionable targets; frankly, it’s anyone who is unpredictable in some way, to some degree. Many of these are obvious, but I’d like to help guide you on whether or not you should draft them, and if so, at what stage of the draft. I have selected 25 guys from Basketball Monster’s Top 100 of the 2022-23 season, and I’ve provided a brief analysis of the if, when, why, and where for each of them.

Anthony Davis (4th in Per-Game/17th in Totals)

Should you draft him? Subjectively, no; objectively, probably. AD is clearly one of the best two-way players of the past decade or two, but he is so corny that it’s impossible for me to roster him. But more relevant to you and your team(s) is that every season, he seems to slip in the shower or clip one of his toenails in such a way that it gets infected or simply just falls on his ass while pretending to box someone out. Translation: You’ll be lucky if you get 55 games out of him. What complicates things, though, is that, in those 55 games, you can expect him to average 25 PPG, 12 RPG, and 2.5 BPG. He’s the poster child of FML. If I was someone else, I’d feel okay about grabbing him in the second round. But I wouldn’t burn a first on him, as me or as you. But as those who are not me like to say, “You do you.”

Kevin Durant (5th in Per-Game/35th in Totals)

Should you draft him? Subjectively, yes; objectively, probably. KD is clearly one of the best players ever, period. And he’s so earnest and complicated and fragile and badass that I can’t help but love him. He’s one of the few players who actually puts himself out there and lets his impulses take over, both on and off the court, just like the rest of us normies do on a daily basis. Again, I love it. And again, more relevant to you and your team(s) is that every season, he’s just, like, so awesome. I mean, case in point – last season, he averaged 29.4 PPG, 2.0 3PG, 6.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.4 BPG, and he shot 56% from the field and 92% from the line. That is just truly outrageous stuff. Sure, he only played 47 games, and this year, he might only play 48. But that’s the risk you gotta take with Easy Money Sniper.

Kyrie Irving (9th in Per-Game/13th in Totals)

Oh, Jesus Christ…three guys in, and we’re already at Third-Eye Kai?! Okay, so…I know I’m telling you he was the ninth-ranked player last season, and he was! And despite what you might think, and what the media might tell you, he actually played 60 games last year! However, every year is a new year, and next year, he might decide to sit out to produce a documentary film about the radicality of inchworms. He is the ultimate case of buyer beware, but if you can get him late in the second round or early in the third, he will be one of the steals of the draft, especially if you are an especially patient and tolerant person. The guy’s stats are nearly perfect, and when you tune in to watch him, it’s like watching Pistol Pete impersonate the Harlem Globetrotters, which is like the most fun version of basketball imaginable, in my opinion.

Jimmy Butler (10th in Per-Game/8th in Totals)

Truth be told, Himmy is one of my all-time favorite hoopers. When the Internet talks about dudes having that dawg in them, they’re mostly talking about bros who wanna be like Jim. The stories about him are legendary – his escape from homelessness, his ascent from end-of-bench guy to two-way stud to playoff superstar, his on-camera abuse of the Timberwolves starters, his boutique coffee company he started in the Bubble, his maybe sorta not-so-secret dates with the likes of Selena Gomez and Shakira…the list goes on! Who else but Jimmy could make singing to Hootie and the Blowfish while drinking Mich Ultra on a private jet full of actors pretending to be his teammates look semi-cool? The answer is…nobody! Okay, so I’ve appropriately built him up – he’s awesome! But for a long time, it seemed like the real-life basketball community mostly saw him as a second-class superstar, which (I feel like) led many fantasy managers to believe that was true. But for those who were hip to what was actually happening…we realized he was always a (potential) top-15 player, and he keeps proving us right, year after year. This is particularly confounding/impressive, given the fact that he barely ever takes any threes in the regular season. You might be asking why I have him on this list, after that excessive amount of praise, right? Well, like the three before him, he tends to miss a decent number of games, and despite being in peak “Heat Culture” shape, he definitely rests on random nights. This can, and likely will, be frustrating to/for most managers. Also, if DAME D.O.L.L.A. does, in fact, eventually hit South Beach, Jimmy’s value could take a bit of a hit. This is why you should not draft him in the first round, even though he often finishes seasons in the first round. However, if he falls to the 25-and-beyond range and he makes sense with your first two selections, don’t be an idiot; just get him!

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NBA Draft Guide: Third Year Breakout Candidates

Felix Duong — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 04:38:58 +0000

The Third Year Effect

Many people consider the third season to be a pivotal moment in an NBA player’s career, especially for those who are drafted in the first round. At this stage in their careers, not only have they gotten a couple of seasons under their belt to adjust to the grind of the NBA but they are also eligible for extensions on their rookie scale contracts next offseason. Their respective front offices have gotten a chance to assess their assets, but this also means that there is ample scouting out on them around the rest of the league. Teams believe they have the data and scouting they need to decide whether to invest in these players long term or cut bait, which means we as fantasy managers have to keep close tabs on. That being said, their draft position and the teams that they end up on has a direct correlation on their growth and maturity in the league. Top or early lottery picks typically play for rebuilding teams which means they may often see a larger role earlier on in their careers. Players drafted later on in the first round may see smaller roles or taken as more developmental projects given that these teams are typically more competitive. Let’s get into it and take a look at players from each range of the 2021 draft to highlight their pathways to breakout seasons for fantasy managers in their third season.

Jalen Johnson (F, ATL)

After perpetually spending several years in and out of trade rumors, the Atlanta Hawks finally traded John Collins away to the Utah Jazz this offseason and it always felt like a foregone conclusion. His production and efficiency had slid every year since his respective third season in the 2019-20 season and put up his worst categorical statistics across the board this season since his rookie campaign. His exit gives Jalen Johnson, the Hawk’s first-round pick in 2021, a real opportunity to take a leap under Quin Snyder. After spending much of his time in the G-League during his rookie season, he played a more consistent role off the bench in his sophomore season appearing in 70 games and averaging 14.9 minutes per game. After Snyder took over the coaching reins from Nate McMillan mid-season, Johnson’s playing time jumped 20.6 minutes per game towards the end of the season and he took advantage. He averaged 11.6 pt/4.8 reb/3.2 ast/1.4 blk/1.8 stl on very efficient shooting.

Early starting lineup projections have Saddiq Bey penciled in as the starting power forward this upcoming season, but I don’t think that Snyder and the Hawks front office are fully bought in. Johnson is a better playmaker and more efficient than Bey, who is better suited coming off the bench as a three-point threat. Johnson has a chance to leapfrog him in the rotation as the season progresses especially if he improves his outside shot even just a little from his 28.8% clip over his two seasons in the league. His 6 ‘8” frame makes him a primary candidate as a power forward but he has the agility to play on the wing and he could see as much as 25 to 27 minutes per game splitting time between both forward spots. An even bigger role awaits if the Hawks actually pull the trigger on a deal to move De’Andre Hunter down the line this season.

ESPN ADP: 140.0
Fantrax ADP: 154.0

Corey Kispert (G/F, WAS)

Corey Kispert is a prototypical, sharpshooting wing who was drafted as an older prospect by the Washington Wizards after four years at Gonzaga where he made the 1st team All-NCAA in 2020-21. Many people expected him to be one of the more NBA-ready players in his draft class and they have not been proven wrong. Kispert has adjusted very rapidly to the long-distance shooting in the NBA after his rookie season and ended his sophomore campaign shooting 42.4% from three which ranked 10th in the league. He has quickly found success as an elite catch-and-shoot player who thrives with drive and kick playmakers, hitting his corner threes at a 48.8% rate with 98.2% of his 3-point shots coming from assists. His number was called upon more consistently with Bradley Beal sidelined more often than not with injuries and he found a lot of success playing with Monte Morris who has established himself as a pass-first point guard coming from his backup role in Denver.

The Wizards continue to be one of the more perplexing teams in the league because they never seem to be able to cross the hump between irrelevance and contention. After shipping away both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to the Phoenix Suns and the Boston Celtics respectively, they brought in Tyus Jones and Jordan Poole as well as re-signing Kyle Kuzma in what looks to be a rebuilding year. Although Poole projects to be a high-usage player on the new-look Wizards, Kispert has demonstrated he does not need high usage to succeed. Jones is a clear upgrade over Morris at the starting point guard spot and will be looking for Kispert to be open behind the three-point line. Kispert’s defensive deficiencies will keep him as a 30-minute-per-night starter but if he works on his playmaking over the offseason, he should enjoy statistical success in his third season.

ESPN ADP: 140.0
Fantrax ADP: 158.6

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NBA Draft Guide: Restricted Free Agents to Draft/Avoid

Jon Marsales — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 03:47:04 +0000

Restricted Free Agents to Target in Fantasy

Restricted free agency doesn’t have the same allure as unrestricted as most guys worth getting a max get re-upped well before they hit the semi-open market. This year’s crop of restricted free agents is actually quite dire and there are only a handful of players you actively would want to target in the early rounds of your fantasy draft, but there’s always gold to be mined as long as you’re willing to dig deep enough. Most of these players live on the cusp between making the leap or taking whatever contract they can get from the team that drafted them. Most teams are willing to overpay simply so that they don’t lose the asset for nothing, but they also aren’t willing to break open the vault. All that matters in life is motive and opportunity and most of these players have the motive to get paid in the offseason, but the real crux lies in whether they will get the opportunity to fully showcase what they can bring to the table.

Tyrese Maxey – PG – (PHI)

Maxey has been one of my favorite players ever since he made the leap as a sophomore. There is no doubt he’s one of the fastest players in the league and can score from all three levels in the blink of an eye. Greatness on the court doesn’t always translate into the fantasy elite and Maxey is in danger of falling into that camp. Maxey averaged 20.1 PPG on great percentages (48.1 FG% and 84.5 FT%) but was still outside the top-75 on per-game averages and barely a top-100 asset on totals in 60 games. If the Sixers kept the status quo and ran it back, history would repeat itself and Maxey would get drafted in the top-50 and likely disappoint again.

Luckily for Maxey, James Harden is on the Sixers and is aggressively threatening to hold out unless he gets traded. For all of Harden’s talents, his style is a black hole of over-dribbling and ball dominance that often relegates Maxey to stand in the corner and wait his turn. Unless the Sixers pull off a Harden-for-Damian Lillard coup, it’s finally going to be Maxey’s turn to run the show. Maxey is a thoroughbred that has been kept in the stables for three seasons and is finally ready to break down the barn doors. His game might not be perfectly fantasy-compatible with a lack of boards/dimes and defensive stats, but sometimes you have to ignore the nerds and follow your gut. If that doesn’t convince you then take the final 26 games of the season where Maxey posted top-15 value on totals and top-30 on per-game averages.

Onyeka Okgongwu – C – (ATL)

The predicted demise of Clint Capela was premature and everyone who snagged Okongwu last season waiting for him to overtake the Swiss starting big man was left mildly disappointed. Okongwu was still a totals beast, finishing top-50 in 80 games, but he was just outside the top-75 on per-game averages and probably got dropped at some point over the first 20 games, where he averaged less than 20 minutes of action. Capela (29 years old) hasn’t really shown any signs of decline yet, but the Hawks have proved that they are willing to shake things up and you have to assume they are trying to move Capela to free up some cap and let the new wave take over. Drafting Okongwu is really a bet against Capela getting hurt or traded because if either happens, the sky is the limit as his minutes will jump from 23.1 per game to closer to 30 and that will have a cascading effect on all his counting stats. The best bet is for Okongwu to simply become too good not to start and if he can even make a mini-leap on both ends while Capela slips a little bit, that should widen the gap enough that the Hawks are forced to hand the reigns to Okongwu. Okongwu is a great pick in the middle-to-late rounds because while his floor is assured, his ceiling remains completely undefined.

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NBA Draft Guide: Top-10 Unrestricted Free Agents to Avoid

Jon Marsales — Thu, 31 Aug 2023 05:47:32 +0000

Top-10 Unrestricted Free Agents to Avoid

NBA players are human like the rest of us and there’s often a real motivation to kick their game into high gear when they are on the cusp of signing a massive deal. The new CBA kicks in soon and with the new TV deal also looming, there is a Brinks truck worth of money available to stars that become indispensable to their franchise. There are generally two types of unrestricted free agents, one that is looking for their first big contract once making the leap after their first or second deal and the established vet who is looking for a massive payday later in their career. This isn’t a great free agent class by any means, but that just means there will be more mid-tiered players looking to cash in on their breakout season. Here is a list of the top unrestricted free agents you should avoid drafting in fantasy for the coming season.

Pascal Siakam – PF – (TOR)

Siakam is one of the few elite players looking for a mega-deal next summer and while he could be primed to have one of the most productive seasons of his career, the real question is what jersey will he be wearing this season? Siakam is a jack-of-all-trades forward that can seamlessly fit into almost any system. He’s pretty much a lock to finish in the top-45 each campaign and doesn’t take anything off the table category-wise. He’s still in the prime of his career and is generally pretty healthy, playing between 56-71 games in each of the last four seasons. The real boon to his value is the out-of-position dimes he provides, career-high 5.8 last season and as long as his new team doesn’t take the ball out of his hands, the dimes should continue to be prevalent.

Siakam is who he is at this point and I wouldn’t expect a major jump in any statistical categories, but the looming question mark of “will they or won’t they” trade him makes his fantasy value a little murkier than normal. It’s probably the highest on the Raptors where he can continue to operate as a pseudo-first option (averaged career-high 24.2 PPG), but it doesn’t seem very likely that the Raps brass will keep him, simply to let him walk as a free agent after the season. The Pacers and Hawks are the two favorites to land him and they both have holes in their frontcourt, but they also have elite playmakers and it’s possible Siakam could take a backseat ala John Collins. I would expect his numbers to take a hit on whatever team he gets traded to and he’s already being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor. He remains a solid player to draft in the early-middle rounds, but while his consistency remains one of his biggest selling points, it’s his uncertain future that is harder to bank on this season.

Buddy Hield – SG – (IND)

Hield had his breakout season last season and he really made the leap from unreliable gunner to one of the most prolific shooting guards in the league. It’s rare that a player of his limited skill set makes such a massive fantasy jump as he turns 30, but it’s not unprecedented. He’s a natural fit next to Tyrese Haliburton and as long as he’s getting great looks from beyond the arc, his fantasy value should be fairly stable. The real dilemma when looking to draft Hield is do you use the last three season’s worth of data that had him shooting 40.6% from the field or last season’s potential aberration where he was dialed in from the jump and hit his shots at a career-high 45.8% clip.

You can make the argument either way, but even when he was traded mid-season two campaigns ago he still upped his FG% from 38.2% as a King to 44.7% as a Pacer. This might be a whole lot of speculation on one category, but the reality is it’s the only thing that has proven volatile over his career. The jump in FG% is what made his value go from being in the 70-100 range the last few seasons in averages to a top-50 player last season. Hield doesn’t get hurt, pass, rebound or block. His 1.2 steals last season were great, but not that far out of the norm, so the only thing you should be buying or selling is his FG%. Sadly, this is fantasy and there are always external factors at play and one of the biggest next season is the emergence of Benedict Mathurin as a go-to scorer breathing fire down Hields’ neck. It’s just as likely the Pacers decide to sell high on Hield and move him mid-season rather than pay him a massive deal that might not be on their timetable and without Haliburton feeding Hield all season; it’s more than likely he regresses back into inefficient gunner mode.

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Read Also: Top-10 Unrestricted Free Agents to Draft

NBA Draft Guide: Top-10 Unrestricted Free Agents to Draft

Jon Marsales — Thu, 31 Aug 2023 05:35:35 +0000

Top-10 Unrestricted Free Agents to Draft

NBA players are human like the rest of us and there’s often a real motivation to kick their game into high gear when they are on the cusp of signing a massive deal. The new CBA kicks in soon and with the new TV deal also looming, there is a Brinks truck worth of money available to stars that become indispensable to their franchise. There are generally two types of unrestricted free agents, one that is looking for their first big contract once making the leap after their first or second deal and the established vet who is looking for a massive payday later in their career. This isn’t a great free agent class by any means, but that just means there will be more mid-tiered players looking to cash in on their breakout season. Here is a list of the top unrestricted free agents you should avoid drafting in fantasy for the coming season.

Nicolas Claxton – C – (BRK)

Claxton went from finishing the 2022 season ranked outside the top-200 in totals to being a top-15 player last season and you won’t see a meteoric jump like that very often in the annals of fantasy hoops. Claxton is only 24 years old and in search of his first big deal and all signs point to him following last season with another monster. His 54.1 FT% hurts, but everything else is gravy and his ability to contribute defensive stats (2.5 blocks 0.9 steals) sets him apart from almost all other fantasy players. The Nets were a chemistry mess last season and the only true constant was Claxton protecting the rim.

They now have a solid foundation and moving forward it should continue to be all roses for the bouncy big man. He only played in 30 minutes per-game last season and if he could up that closer to 35, the sky is the limit. Claxton makes an ideal pairing with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a free throw punt strategy and even without Giannis; his 3.4 FTA per-game isn’t a killer. He played in 76 games last season and was still finding his footing and confidence on both ends. If he has another gear left in him; expect him to hit it this season as he seeks out the kind of contract that will set him and his family up for generations. If you missed out on him last season, don’t make that mistake again even with the increased draft capital.

Tobias Harris – PF – (PHI)

Harris is one of the league’s forgotten men and almost always slides on draft day because he doesn’t do anything great and none of his lines pop in the box score. Would it shock you to learn that Harris has finished top-50 in totals the last four seasons and top-25 in two of those four? Harris has had a “bloated” contract ever since the Sixers decided to keep him instead of Jimmy Butler, but he’s lived up to that deal and will now be in search of an even bigger one.

The Sixers are a mess right now and who knows if they keep James Harden, dump him for spare parts or trade Joel Embiid and blow the whole thing up. As far as Harris is concerned, he’s a winner either way because all Harris needs is the opportunity to put up stats across the board. His percentages are always great (50.1 FG%, 87.6 FT%) and he’s almost always healthy, playing in 62-74 games in each of the last four campaigns. Harris is still in his prime, versatile and underutilized on this current Sixers roster and you better believe he’s going to try and convince a team to give him 200 million dollars next season. No one will clap for you when you draft Harris, but I promise you are almost always getting two rounds of value simply because other GMs will view him as boring.

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2023-2024 NBA Draft Guide: Position/Minutes Battles to Monitor

Mark C — Thu, 31 Aug 2023 05:10:30 +0000

Team building and roster building has to be one of my favorite aspects of the NBA offseason. I am that GM on NBA2K that would sim all the games and only conduct roster machinations, aiming to build the best roster I could. For fantasy it is no different. I want to be the very best and to do that, I always try to take stock of NBA rosters in the offseason and predict how I see rotations working out. Below I’ll dive into some key position battles I foresee and how they will affect respective fantasy values.

All ADP data is from Yahoo

John Collins vs. Jazz Frontcourt

People seem so willing to crown John Collins as a big fantasy winner with the trade to the Jazz. I can understand the argument here – former top-50 fantasy player coming off a down spell who can finally be freed and unleashed on a retooling Jazz roster. But baked within that assumption is Collins is worthy of the usage and role needed to be that fantasy player, and that’s where I struggle.

Collins’s fantasy game shines when he operates as the roll-man and being assigned as the team’s rim protector. In Hardy’s movement-based offense that requires quick decision making, I actually prefer Kelly Oynyk over John Collins playing the roll-man. Olynyk may not be as mobile or athletic as Collins, but he certainly has passing and dribbling skills that Collins lacks. On defense, Walker Kessler clearly is the better rim protector over John Collins. These two factors should limit Collins to more of a spacer on offense and a weak-side help defender, things we do not want to see if we hope for Collins’ fantasy value to rebound. Collins should see minutes ranging from 24-30 per game, but I doubt they will be in Collins’s ideal role for fantasy production.

Draft and ADP Recommendations

John Collins’s early ADP sits at 106.3 which is reasonable at this stage if a tad high for me. I’d be passing at him at that price. Olynyk sits at 140.3, which I love for some strong value in the early parts of the season. Kessler is currently at 41.8, which feels appropriate given his four category contributions without much elsewhere.

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GENERAL INFO			CAREER MINUTES			GAMES PLAYED ACROSS PAST 10 SEASONS
Rank	Player	Age	Total	Reg Ssn	Playoffs	22-23	21-22	20-21*	19-20*	18-19	17-18	16-17	15-16	14-15	13-14
1	LeBron James	38	65747	54093	11654	55	56	45	67	55	82	74	76	69	77
2	Chris Paul	38	47227	41785	5442	59	65	70	70	58	58	61	74	82	62
4	Kevin Durant	34	42906	36181	6725	47	55	35	0	78	68	62	72	27	81
5	Russell Westbrook	34	41912	37552	4360	73	78	65	57	73	80	81	80	67	46
6	James Harden	33	40503	34753	5750	58	65	44	68	78	72	81	82	81	73
7	Kyle Lowry	37	38622	34331	4291	55	63	46	58	65	78	60	77	70	79
8	Al Horford	37	38239	32519	5720	63	69	28	67	68	72	68	82	76	29
9	DeMar DeRozan	33	37839	35471	2368	74	76	61	68	77	80	74	78	60	79
11	Stephen Curry	35	35794	30302	5492	56	64	63	5	69	51	79	79	80	78
12	Mike Conley	35	35439	32648	2791	67	72	51	47	70	12	69	56	70	73
16	Jrue Holiday	33	32652	30001	2651	67	67	59	61	67	81	67	65	40	34
17	Nicolas Batum	34	31552	29740	1812	78	59	67	22	75	64	77	70	71	82
18	Brook Lopez	35	31009	28565	2444	78	13	70	68	81	74	75	73	72	17
19	Paul George	33	30902	26680	4222	56	31	54	48	77	79	75	81	6	80
20	Damian Lillard	33	30400	27942	2458	58	29	67	66	80	73	75	75	82	82
22	Jimmy Butler	33	29513	25002	4511	64	57	52	58	65	59	76	67	65	67
23	Klay Thompson	33	29390	23560	5830	69	32	0	0	78	73	78	80	77	81
26	Harrison Barnes	31	28655	26418	2237	82	77	58	72	77	77	79	66	82	78
27	Kevin Love	35	28647	26330	2317	62	74	25	56	22	59	60	77	75	77
29	Eric Gordon	34	28242	26223	2019	69	57	27	36	68	69	75	45	61	64
30	Tobias Harris	30	28098	26054	2044	74	73	62	72	82	80	82	76	68	61