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Franz Wagner vs. Scottie Barnes

Franz Wagner puts Scottie Barnes in the spin cycle pic.twitter.com/P4dsAv6prP

— hoops bot (@hoops_bot) March 5, 2022

PAST: Who was the better fantasy player?

2021-2022 Statistics

Wagner: 

15.2 PPG, 1.2 3PT, 4.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 1.5 TO, .468 FG%, .863 FT%

79 games, 1197 points, 96 3-pointers, 356 rebounds, 231 assists, 69 steals, 33 blocks, 119 turnovers, 456-of-975 field goals, 189-of-219 free throws

Barnes: 

15.3 PPG, 0.8 3PT, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 1.9 TO, .492 FG%, .735 FT%

74 games, 1134 points, 58 3-pointers, 557 rebounds, 256 assists, 80 steals, 55 blocks, 136 turnovers, 459-of-932 field goals, 158-of-215 free throws

Spoiler alert: Rookie of the Year generally equates to high fantasy value. Such was the case for Scottie Barnes in his debut season as he immediately became a valued contributor for the Raptors. However, let’s not forget that Wagner was an Opening Night starter in Orlando as well and immediately stood out among that group. The key difference between the two players? One experienced a lot more winning in their early career. Barnes and the Raptors more than doubled the Magic’s win total in the 2021-2022 season, which gave the 6’9” forward an edge with the media. Despite his obvious value to the present and future of the team, the recent champion Raptors arguably needed Barnes less than the Magic needed Wagner behind their solid core of two-way players like Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

It’s hard to earn looks in an established offense with veterans that are used to a steady shot diet but that’s exactly what Barnes did from the start. Wagner averaged almost exactly the same number of shots per game but did so on the team that would finish last in Offensive Rating by the end of the season. It follows that Barnes would make a higher percentage of his looks as the Raptors were generally able to create better opportunities for him to score. Once again, Wagner did actually keep almost exact pace with his peer in the scoring department. He actually held an advantage there with more 3-pointers and a significantly higher free-throw percentage on -surprise, surprise- identical volume. It was only once we started to widen the scope that it became clear where the pair really separated. Barnes won the assist battle by a narrow but not insignificant margin while holding the rebounds lead by a wide margin at around three more boards per game. On defense, it was another clean sweep, with Barnes’ 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks per game representing above-average marks and also eclipsing Wagner by fair margins. By the end of the year the voters took note of Barnes’ more universal value and named him the Rookie of the Year. It follows that he gets the nod here. After all, he matched Wagner’s strengths and outperformed him in so many other areas. What else could I say?

Verdict: Barnes

PRESENT: Who is the better fantasy player?

2022-2023 Statistics

Wagner: 

18.6 PPG, 1.6 3PT, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 2.1 TO, .485 FG%, .842 FT%

80 games, 1485 points, 130 3-pointers, 329 rebounds, 283 assists, 77 steals, 17 blocks, 167 turnovers, 542-of-1118 field goals, 271-of-322 free throws

Barnes: 

15.3 PPG, 0.8 3PT, 6.6 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 2.0 TO, .456 FG%, .772 FT%

77 games, 1179 points, 63 3-pointers, 512 rebounds, 371 assists, 83 steals, 61 blocks, 154 turnovers, 463-of-1016 field goals, 190-of-246 free throws

It was a whole new ball game in the respective sophomore seasons of Franz Wagner and Scottie Barnes. You may have read or heard that Barnes didn’t progress in his second year, which isn’t entirely true and even if true would still represent a valuable NBA player. There’s a difference between a disappointing season and a bad one. However, that was never an issue with Wagner. In fact, it was quite the opposite. The German wing surged forward with a three-point boost in his scoring average along with improved averages in treys, assists, steals and field goal percentage. It became clear that he was going to be pivotal to the Magic’s future as they build around 2022-2023 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero. This was and is true of Barnes with the Raptors but the Florida State product fell back in boards and field goal percentage while only showing improvement as a free throw shooter and playmaker with a 1.3 assist per game boost over last season. Otherwise, it was just more of the same production that earned him some pretty nifty hardware only a season earlier. Unfortunately, it was part of a Raptors season that was only noteworthy for how disappointing it was and that affected the narratives of individual players on the team.

Wagner definitely made a leap while Barnes was more or less treading water in the 2022-2023 season but what was the difference between them? Well, there are now clear leads for Wagner in several categories, as he proved to be a much better scorer, 3-point shooter and generally more efficient player than Barnes. In a standard four-game week, Wagner averaged about 13 more points and three more treys than Barnes. However, he remained notably worse in high-impact areas like rebounds, assists, and blocks. A tie is a tie but it’s notable that Wagner has basically caught up to Barnes in steals per game if only for the jump forward that it represents for him. If Barnes’s 0.1 steals per game lead represents a victory for him in that category then so too does his 0.1 turnovers per game advantage, but it’s not important enough to award him a win when the real impact of those slight advantages pales in comparison to the categories that Wagner wins. For me, it’s a 4-3 win for Wagner who had clear wins in points, treys, field goal percentage and free throw percentage with two draws in steals and turnovers, but don’t sleep on Barnes for what could be considered a split decision loss. 

Verdict: Wagner

FUTURE: Who will be the better fantasy player in 2023-2024?

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