Steven is joined by Cooper Kline to talk Houston Rockets. Why are they both so high on Tari Eason? How excited are Rockets fans at the possibility to get Victor Wembayama? Tune in to find out!

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2018-2019 Record                 Home Record               Road Record

        53-29                                     31-10                            22-19

2019-2020 Record                 Home Record               Road Record

         40-24                                     22-10                            18-14

Fun Facts for the season

-The Warriors took more 3-pointers than any other team back when they won 73 regular season games in 2015-16 and eventually lost in the NBA Finals. Ever since then, no team has embraced the 3-point shot more than the Rockets as they have led the league in 3-point attempts in each of the last four seasons and have attempted a total of 13,329 threes over that span for an average of 3,332.25 attempts per season. No other franchise has averaged more than 2,750 3-point attempts per season since 2016-17.

-Since joining the Rockets back in 2012-13, James Harden is the only player in the fantasy community that has maintained first round value in 8/9-cat leagues (per-game and totals) in each of the last eight seasons, and the former MVP has never finished lower than eighth overall during his tenure with the Rockets.

-James Harden has been the most durable player in the NBA since joining the Rockets and it can be fleshed out by looking at All-NBA caliber players (43 players have made at least one All-NBA team since 2013) who have played in over 90 percent of their team’s regular season games: James Harden (606 of 638 games, 95%), DeAndre Jordan (606 of 638 games, 95%), Nikola Jokić (373 of 393 games, 94.9%), Damian Lillard (607 of 640 games, 94.8%), Giannis Antetokounmpo (522 of 557 games, 93.7%), Andre Drummond (599 of 640 games, 93.6%), DeMar DeRozan (591 of 637 games, 92.8%), Kemba Walker (589 of 638 games, 92.3%), Karl Anthony-Towns (358 of 392 games, 91.3%), Draymond Green (576 of 639 games, 90.1%)

-The Rockets needed some time to integrate their newest addition, Russell Westbrook, into the offensive scheme as he started the season by producing 4th/10th round per-game value over his first 18 games while his value soared in the last 53 contests when he produced 2nd/4th round per-game value

-Robert Covington is a name to watch next season as he appears to have plenty of opportunity for fantasy value with the Rockets as he produced 3rd/2nd round per-game value since joining Houston (14 games). By comparison, Covington was producing 4th/4th round per-game value in 48 games with Minnesota prior to the trade.

-Just 14 players in the NBA had a usage higher than 30 percent this season and the Rockets were the only team to have two players over that mark: James Harden (35.8) and Russell Westbrook (33.0). This might help explain why only one other player (Robert Covington) on their team was able to finish inside the top-100.

For a closer look at how the season has gone, be sure to check out our Season So Far series. The Rockets’ entry can be found right here.

Rosterable in 12-team 8/9-cat leagues (per-game value)

-James Harden (1st round/1st round)

-Russell Westbrook (2nd round/4th round)

-Robert Covington (4th round/4th round)

-P.J. Tucker (11th round/9th round)

-Danuel House (12th round/9th round)

Showed flashes of fantasy value in 12-team 8/9-cat leagues (per-game value)

-N/A

Rosterable in standard points leagues

(This is Yahoo’s standard scoring system, we’ll be using them as a reference for the rankings but obviously things will be different in your league if you use a custom scoring format or play on ESPN/CBS/Fantrax)

-James Harden (1st round)

-Russell Westbrook (2nd round)

-Robert Covington (6th round)

-P.J. Tucker (11th round)

Flashes of value in standard points leagues:

-N/A

Predicting standard league relevant players for 2020-21 season

-James Harden (all formats)

-Russell Westbrook (all formats)

-Robert Covington (all formats)

Potential for standard league value for 2020-21 season

-P.J. Tucker (8/9-cat)

-Danuel House (9-cat)

Upcoming Notable Free Agents

-Austin Rivers (player option of $2.37M in 2020-21)

-Ben McLemore (team option of $2.28M in 2020-21)

-Isaiah Hartenstein (team option of $1.66M in 2020-21)

-Chris Clemons (team option of $1.52M in 2020-21)

-Bruno Caboclo (unrestricted)

-DeMarre Carroll (unrestricted)

-Jeff Green (unrestricted)

-Tyson Chandler (unrestricted)

-Thabo Sefolosha (unrestricted)

Key Additions

-Robert Covington (acquired via trade)

-Bruno Caboclo (acquired via trade)

-Jeff Green (signed mid-season)

-DeMarre Carroll (signed mid-season)

Key Departures

-Gerald Green (traded to Nuggets)

-Clint Capela (traded to Hawks)

-Nene (traded to Hawks)

-Ryan Anderson (waived)

Upcoming Draft Picks

-2020 second round pick (via Memphis protected 31-55)

-2021 first round pick (least favorable of Oklahoma City, Miami or Houston pick)

-2021 second round pick (Houston has rights to swap second round picks with Philadelphia)

-2022 first round pick

Houston is currently the six seed in a competitive Western Conference, but they’re only five games back of the second seed. It’s unlikely that the Rockets would have made a surge for the two seed, but each week the standings in the west looked different from the third seed down to the seventh seed.

2019 Harden

James Harden had an amazing 2019 calendar year. He started off the season strong and continued to play at a ridiculous level for the first three months of the regular season. In fantasy basketball, his durability and high usage make him one of the most reliable picks, and in reality having him on your team guarantees a spot in the playoffs.

In October he averaged 36.8 points and 8.8 assists. In November he averaged 39.5 points and 7.6 assists. In December he averaged 37.3 points and 6.9 assists. The addition of Russell Westbrook did not slow him down at all. During that stretch, Harden shot more 3-pointers than 2-pointers and still made them at an efficient clip. 3-pointers always add a level of variance to the game and the tail end of the variance hit in January.

He hit .270 of his 3-point attempts and his scoring average dipped to 28.6. It was the most brutal stretch for Harden in his Rockets career, especially with the team struggling to find consistency. After the Robert Covington trade, things began to open up again and Harden found his groove, but it wasn’t as dominant as his 2019 stretch.

Even with that slump, Harden is the top fantasy player in terms of overall value in both 8/9-cat and is 1/2 in terms of per-game value. He’s also leading the league with 34.4 points per game and has managed to hold off a substantial dip in rebounds and assists despite the arrival of Westbrook. Must be nice.

Russell Westbrook’s Layup Factory

The elephant in the room when Russell Westbrook joined the Rockets was how he would fit into a system that prioritizes 3-point shots after coming off one of the worst 3-point shooting seasons in NBA history, when he knocked down just 29.0% of his 5.6 3-point attempts per game. At first, Russ continued to jack up 3s and mid-range shots that had many people questioning why anyone thought this move would work out, but as the season went on, he began to abandon the 3-point shot completely.

In December, Russ played in 13 games and shot 57 3-pointers. Over the next 23 games, Russ only shot 54 3-pointers and his scoring average increased to 33.4 points in the month of February. Teams are guarding him like they do with Draymond Green and Ben Simmons, allowing him to have all the space in the world outside of the 3-point line in order to guard the paint, but Russ is still finding ways to get to the rim and score at the most efficient rate of his career. Though Westbrook is hitting just 25.4% of his threes this season, he’s hitting 47.4% of his shots overall. He also learned how to shoot free throws again and is hitting them at a .777 clip after shooting .656 the season prior in OKC.

While the doubters were rightfully skeptical of how Westbrook’s shooting would fit in Houston, those who believed that quality floor spacing could make up the difference look to be in the right so far. Though he’s still not quite elite in 9-cat formats, Wesbtrook’s per-game rankings of 13/37 (8/9-cat) are a lot more in line with his typically lofty ADP. Though he has seen a drop in rebounds and assists (from 11.1 to 8.0 and 10.7 to 7.0, respectively), the spike in field goal percentage has pushed Westbrook back into early-round territory.

Lord Covington   

Robert Covington was a name that was constantly in the Rockets trade rumor mill. Usually when this happens, it means a deal isn’t likely to be done, but a three-team deal was made for the Rockets to finally get the guy they’ve coveted for so long.

When the trade was announced, every NBA fan and analyst had a strong opinion about it. Small-ball has been played in increments with great success, as seen by the Warriors during their dynastic run, but no one has ever committed to not playing a traditional center for all 48 minutes. In the first game after the trade, the Rockets played one of the biggest teams in the league, the Lakers. There were plenty of alley-oops and dunks for Anthony Davis and LeBron James and at halftime the TNT crew and all of Twitter had a field day clowning on the Rockets’ microball approach. Then the Rockets won the game and the newly acquired Lord Covington hit two clutch 3-pointers in road win against the No. 1 seed in the West.

Russell Westbrook had 41 points and the critics were rightfully skeptical about whether a team could run P.J. Tucker at center for 48 minutes for an entire season.

As for Covington, he’s been a nice fit with the Rockets from a fantasy perspective. His 12.8 points per game for Houston is the same that he averaged with the Wolves this season, but his rebounds are up from 6.0 to 7.9, his 3-pointers are up from 2.3 to 2.9 and his blocks skyrocketed from 0.9 to 2.5. The block numbers are obviously not sustainable as we’re looking at a 14-game sample, but you can also expect Covington to regain his form in the steals department — he’s gone from 1.7 to 1.1 per game after the trade. As a true frontcourt player, more rebounds should be headed Covington’s way, and the threes will always be plentiful in Houston. It’s a great fantasy match and Covington should maintain his status as an under-the-radar early-round guy.

Microball

Covington was the new shiny toy that hit the big shots to end the game, but the real story was Russell Westbrook scoring 41 points on .607 shooting. I did a quick breakdown with some images of how the halfcourt sets are run for the Rockets and it all starts with James Harden.

Because of his ridiculous play in the first three months of the season, teams began to double him before he even crossed halfcourt. He’d have to get rid of the ball, because that’s the correct play to make, and it would become a 4-on-3 opportunity for the Rockets with Russ having the ball. The issue with this set before the RoCo deal was that Clint Capela was in the paint and the defender guarding Russ was camped in the paint as well, clogging the lane and leading to pull-up jumpers or 3-pointers from Westbrook.

When Covington arrived, the paint became clear and Russ could take advantage of this with his elite athleticism and downhill speed. Microball was off to a better start than most people would have expected, but the variance in playstyle showed when the Rockets hit a four-game losing streak that started off with the lowly Knicks taking advantage of their five power forwards and saw Houston hit rock bottom when the team lost to the Hornets and Magic by a combined total of 29 points. The last game the Rockets played was a six-point win against the Wolves to end their skid and the break in play is actually a positive for the Rockets due to their shaky play.

Even on the fringes, the Rockets declined to add a traditional center even as emergency depth, filling out the roster with switchier forwards like DeMarre Carroll, Jeff Green and Bruno Caboclo.

Injuries

James Harden has one of the heaviest workloads in the league, but he’s one of the most durable players as well. The subject of load management came up a lot during the Rockets offseason as Harden always seems to get fatigued towards the end of the playoffs, but he’s had zero load management days off this year which is a bit bizarre.

Russell Westbrook has sat one game in every back-to-back set this season, which is interesting as he plays fewer minutes than Harden and is the same age, but he’s had a knee surgery and his playstyle is a lot more explosive which is probably why he rests and Harden doesn’t. Harden has also been very vocal about wanting to play if he’s healthy and doesn’t like the idea of load management.

Eric Gordon had some knee issues which kept him out of a good chunk of the season and when he returned to action, he aggravated the problem within a few games. Gordon’s inability to stay on the court really hurt his ability to get in any sort of a rhythm and it’s one of the reasons why the Rockets were slumping.

Clint Capela also had a heel spur and dealt with plantar fasciitis before he was traded and those types of injuries to big men usually linger. The injury issues with Capela definitely played a part in Morey’s decision to commit all in on small-ball.

With Gordon’s lingering knee issues, Harden and P.J. Tucker’s extremely heavy workloads, the break in play and rest is something that benefits the Rockets greatly. Coach D’Antoni was running a tight rotation and if the season resumes, the Rockets should come out looking much better than they did prior to the break.

That idea was snuffed out quickly, with Houston flipping Bell to the Grizzlies for Bruno Caboclo. There’s a top-32 protected pick swap for 2023 in there as well, but Caboclo is by far the most interesting part of the deal.

Caboclo, famously overdrafted as one of Masai Ujiri’s few missteps in his NBA tenure, was with the Rockets on an Exhibit 10 deal back in 2018 but never made the big club, getting cut before the regular season began. He finally looked like a legitimate NBA player down the stretch with a depleted Grizzlies team last year, using his length to play multiple positions and flashing the 3-and-D production that his physical profile always suggested was bubbling beneath the surface.

Last year he was able to average 9.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.7 3-pointers in 25.9 minutes a night from the start of March onwards. Things certainly opened up for all the Grizzlies after the trade deadline, but Caboclo ran with the opportunity and looked like a capable part of an NBA rotation.

While Caboclo is sidelined for a few weeks with a knee injury, he gives Mike D’Antoni a toolsy player to plug into a lineup that’s already permanently small. Caboclo’s length will be an asset, but the biggest hurdle to climb will be earning D’Antoni’s trust. Despite his progress, there’s a reason that Bruno has yet to earn minutes on a team that’s actually good. This season he’s appeared in just 22 games, averaging 8.7 minutes in those contests. The Rockets are one of the league’s most open teams when it comes to experimentation, but there’s a limit to how much they can stomach.

One thing that is worth noting is that Caboclo has played approximately 36% of his minutes this season at center, per Basketball Reference’s play-by-play data. If Caboclo can get healthy, and if he can fit in, then that would be a very interesting lineup foundation. That’s a lot of ifs, but it could be another wrench for D’Antoni to throw at opponents. Houston could trot out five guys who can shoot (we’ll give Caboclo the benefit of the doubt on his current 16% conversion rate from deep) and have a long, rangy player in the middle. Those lineups would likely have three plus-rebounders for their positions on the floor to help account for Caboclo’s lack of strength.

While there’s some fun things in theory for Houston to try, Caboclo might not be in the rotation at all. The Rockets may have made this trade because Caboclo’s skillset simply fits better than Bell’s, and teams generally avoid entropy if at all possible when it comes to emergency depth. It’s a low-risk swap for the Rockets, who are officially all-in on one of the more unique roster constructions we’ve seen in a long, long time.

Capela’s name has been on the block dating back to last season and the Hawks have been known suitors for any center upgrade, so those dots were easy to connect. The Rockets lose one of the league’s leading rebounders and a terrific rim-runner, though the persistence with which Capela’s name appeared in trade rumors suggests that Houston won’t be all that heartbroken about it.

Though he’s a tremendous lob threat, Capela ranks just above the 50^th percentile in terms of points per possession generated as a roll-man this season at 1.10, down from 1.17 in the 2018-19 campaign. Capela does rank eighth in the league with 13.8 shots contested per game, however, and this current iteration of the roster has the Rockets trending extremely small.

That’s unlikely to be problem internally, considering Houston just became the first team since 1963 to play a game without a player over 6’6”.

It has been reported that the Rockets are in the market for another center, comfortable with trading Capela to get wing help, which they accomplished here, and then turning around to find a lower-profile big man to bolster the frontcourt. Daryl Morey and company must be comfortable with the high replacement level at the center spot these days, as the market tends to have an excess of non-shooting bigs.

Perhaps Bell can step in to absorb some of Capela’s 32.8 mpg. The talented but frustrating 25-year-old has shown tantalizing upside in spurts but can never seem to stay on the floor due to frequent mental lapses. Bell started for the Warriors in Game 1 of last season’s Finals but is averaging just 8.7 minutes per game this year for the Wolves. How quickly things change.

Isaiah Hartenstein has shown flashes of being a trustworthy rotation player but to date, Mike D’Antoni hasn’t trusted him, giving him just 12.0 mpg in 21 games.

Barring another trade, tentatively expect PJ Tucker to man the center spot for Houston in their most common lineups, as he has been starting at the spot with Capela sidelined by a heel contusion lately. Whether that’s a look that the Rockets are comfortable using in matchups against other elite Western Conference teams, like Anthony Davis and the Lakers or Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, remains to be seen.

The departures of Green and Nene do nothing to Houston’s rotation, as neither has played this season.

In Covington, Houston very much gets its man. The Rockets have been starved for wing help since letting Trevor Ariza leave in free agency two years ago, and in Covington they get one of the league’s truly elite 3-and-D options. It helps that he’s been tasked with playing both power forward and small forward this season for the Wolves, as he gives the Rockets a neutralizer for tough combo forward matchups.

Though overuse and knee issues are red flags, a healthy Covington in his prime could be like a souped-up version of the player that Ariza was in his Houston glory days. Though he is shooting just .343 from 3-point range this season, Covington has not been below .369 from deep in any of the previous four seasons, with nearly two-thirds of his field goals coming from behind the arc in that time.

Knee issues limited Covington to 35 games last season but he has consistently been among the league’s top thieves, with two top-10 finishes in steals per game and top-30 placement in every season (where he’s played enough to qualify for the leaderboards) since cracking the league. At 6’7” and 209 pounds, Covington gives the Rockets another tough, switchable defender who should feast on open 3-point shots.

This season Covington is averaging 4.7 3-pointers per game that are classified as either open or wide open, per the NBA’s tracking data. Danuel House, the catch-and-shoot type that Covington is likely to replace in the starting five, gets 5.2 such attempts per game, with 3.5 of those coming in the “wide open” category. Defenses will pay more mind to a proven shooter like Covington, but the Rockets could not ask for a better fit in terms of a defensive-minded wing who can stretch the floor.

The overall picture will hinge on who the Rockets add to the frontcourt before Thursday’s trade deadline, but in Covington they’ve picked up a player that should be a wonderful complement to their star guard duo.

As the Raptors continued to aggressively double James Harden, the rest of the Rockets were able to feast.

Ben McLemore came through with a season-high 28 points, going 9-of-18 from the field and a ridiculous 8-of-17 from behind the arc. PJ Tucker hit five threes of his own en route to 18 points and 11 rebounds. Danuel House clicked for 16 points and three threes off the bench, while Austin Rivers hit three longballs himself. All told, the Rockets hit 10 more 3-pointers than the Raptors and those four guys combined to shoot 23-for-50.

That’s obviously an outlier clip, considering McLemore is shooting .338 from deep after this explosion, but the Rockets at least know that their secondary scorers are capable of punishing defenses that may employ such ruthless, rigid schemes to slow Harden down. Opponents will dare anyone other than Harden to hit their shots, especially while Eric Gordon is on the shelf, and Thursday’s performance was promising in that regard.

But beyond the strong output from unlikely sources, the Rockets showed that they can also win a game of a uniquely different style.

Ultimately, Houston proved both willing and capable to turn into a ball-movement team. That’s certainly helped along by the Raptors conceding 4-on-3 opportunities, but it is still a major adjustment that the Rockets made over time. They had some issues with it in the first quarter, and though Harden in particular was generally making the right passes to escape extra pressure, his teammates struggled to jump into the flow of things.

Look at this possession. Note how far away Harden is from any aspect of the play (with OG Anunoby ignoring any notion to provide help defense elsewhere), and how none of the other Rockets do anything to react to what’s become a 4-on-4. The Raptors effectively changed the geometry of the floor, and for a little while Houston seemed a little confused about what to do without Harden’s fingerprints all over the ball.

By the end of the night, Houston, who ranks 28^th in the league with just 54.0 percent of their field goals coming from assists, and dead last with 67.2 percent of their 3-pointers coming off assists, ended up with 29 assists on 40 field goals (72.5 percent) and assists on 20 of their 22 3-pointers (90.9 percent).

There’s nothing wrong or improper about those stats in and of themselves – you’d be a fool not to spam Harden’s isolations considering how unstoppable he is – but the question has always been whether the Rockets could beat good teams without Harden’s heroics. For one night, at least, Houston pulled it off. Even with Harden only dropping three dimes, the Rockets proved they could play an immensely different style, and play it well.

Houston took another decisive victory in the rebounding battle, and once they adjusted to quick 4-on-3 situations to get the Raptors scrambling a bit more, the Rockets decimated the Raptors on the offensive glass. One of the major downsides of such aggressive doubling schemes is that it leaves the defense vulnerable to outnumbered battles, and the Rockets were able to pick up 20 offensive rebounds and turn them into 24 second chance points.

On top of all that, on a night where Russell Westbrook was mostly terrible, going 7-for-27 from the field while committing eight turnovers, and yes, getting a triple-double despite it all, Harden showed tremendous restraint while his teammates were generating good shots. He relinquished control of Houston’s offense without fuss and never forced any of the action. He wasn’t shy about getting his shots when windows of space were open, and that patience might have gone out the window had McLemore not shot the lights out, but The Beard proved to be a willing part of the gameplan.

He was also sound defensively too, bringing surprising physicality to the table in the instances where he had to guard Pascal Siakam, and looked fairly engaged on that end of the floor. Scorers may let their offensive numbers weigh heavily on their games overall, but Harden was able to fight through it to provide a positive impact in a different way.

Although the game was essentially won from beyond the arc, where the Rockets hit 10 more threes than the Raptors, there were more than enough good things that this shouldn’t be waved away as a win based on unsustainable percentages. Strategies like Toronto’s become less viable when the aforementioned Gordon returns, but Houston had to like a lot about what they showed on Thursday.

The secondary players stepped up. They found a rhythm against a scheme that dared anyone but Harden to do the heavy lifting. They attacked the scheme’s weak points decisively, and Harden resisted any urges to go into takeover mode and bog the game down. As the competition stiffens, an effort like this is one that Houston will look back to as a shining example of how they can adapt and react.

The Rockets won a game that unfolded in a very un-Rockets way, which should be the biggest takeaway from a fun matchup in early December.

The Warriors’ dynasty is done, the Lakers and Clippers have added major starpower, the Rockets reunited old friends and the Jazz have finally added an elite point guard to the mix. That, and there’s plenty of young teams gunning to assert themselves, ranging from current contenders like Denver to up-and-comers like Sacramento and Dallas. Despite all the player movemnt this summer, the West reigns supreme in terms of quality and it figures to be a dogfight as teams jockey for playoff spots, let alone seeding.

True superteams may be gone for the moment but there are more than enough dynamic duos to tide us over in a season that figures to be pretty unpredictable.

Dallas Mavericks

Fifth and final starter

Delon Wright, Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and Dwight Powell appear to be locked in as four of the Mavs’ starters. The versatility of that group means that Dallas can go in a couple of different directions with the last starting spot.

If Doncic ends up playing shooting guard the Mavs have a few intriguing small forward options. Justin Jackson got the nod in the team’s first preseason game, but he’s never really emerged as an impact player despite providing passable, invisible minutes. Rick Carlisle favorite Dorian Finney-Smith has held down the starting role in the past but the Mavs may want to maximize his utility as a do-it-all bench option.

If shooting guard is the open spot and Doncic starts at the three, Tim Hardaway Jr., who is recovering from another stress reaction in his left leg, might be the choice. He would also be a valuable primary scorer for a second unit, however, and might not have the defensive chops to fill a complementary 3-and-D role alongside high-usage stars as a starter. Seth Curry or Jalen Brunson could start if the Mavs want a two-PG look, and Wright’s defensive versatility would make it a workable situation.

Denver Nuggets

What’s on the table for Will Barton?

This probably isn’t what Will Barton envisioned when he signed a four-year, $53 million contract. Elevated into the starting lineup, Will The Thrill’s 2018-19 season was marred by an early injury and he was unable to find a rhythm on a well-oiled machine of a Nuggets team after returning in the midst of a tight playoff race. That injury, of course, allowed players like Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig to step up and cement themselves as real contributors, which leads us to today.

Craig is rumored to be the favorite to start at small forward and is a nice defensive fit with Denver’s four obvious starters. While the competition is still on, Barton may be used in the super-sub sixth man role that led to his big contract in the first place.

The question for Denver probably lies further in the future – with cheaper alternatives in relative abundance, the Nuggets already over the cap and set to watch Jerami Grant, Beasley, Craig, Juancho Hernangomez and Mason Plumlee hit free agency, how much can they afford to allocate to Barton? Keep an eye on his deployment throughout the exhibition slate. The Nuggets undoubtedly believe in him as a player but there are plenty of other paths for the team to take if Barton can’t recapture his old form.

Golden State Warriors

How do the Warriors reshuffle their defense?

As you might’ve heard, the Warriors will look different this season. Though D’Angelo Russell won’t be a straight replacement for Klay Thompson on offense (something we’ll dig into more closely soon), the big questions come on the defensive side of the floor.

The Klay-Russell swap is a massive downgrade there, but Golden State will also be without Kevin Durant’s endless length and Andre Iguodala’s institutional knowledge. Sacramento soured on Willie Cauley-Stein because of his defensive lapses. A team whose defensive units used to move on a string will be decidedly different this year.

Add in the potential need for Golden State to work rest into Draymond Green’s schedule, and we might see some very funky lineups over the course of the season. Keep an eye on how players like Cauley-Stein, Alfonzo McKinnie and Jacob Evans hang on defense in the preseason, otherwise we might see Steve Kerr engage in some schematic retooling.

Houston Rockets

Do the Rockets have a real bench or just situational contributors?

The Rockets continue to swing big, this time swapping Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook. Although they continue to boast one of the league’s most talented backcourt, one can’t help but wonder whether the depth problem will rear its ugly head once again.

Last season Houston dealt with a number of injuries that left them severely shorthanded in the early going, and although the Westbrook-Paul exchange should generally ensure fewer missed games, the Rockets’ bench isn’t exactly a strength.

The group of Austin Rivers, Gerald Green, Gary Clark, Thabo Sefolosha, Tyson Chandler and Nene has plenty of weak spots. Though their minutes will be limited in the postseason, can the Rockets assemble a cohesive bench unit that can get them through the regular season without leaving the starters overtaxed? It’s easy to think of scenarios where each of those bench players can play an important role, but there aren’t a ton of second-unit groups that you can throw out comfortably in any matchup. Anyone who can turn in a strong preseason might be able to distance themselves from the pack for a team that’s dying for secondary contributors.

LA Clippers

Landry Shamet’s point guard minutes

Doc Rivers has cited Landry Shamet’s past work as a lead guard when discussing the fact that Shamet will play some point guard this season. The uncertainty of Paul George’s timeline means that the Clippers will be down one of their primary ball-handlers for at least the first few games of the year, and that’s not inconsequential on a team with one true point guard.

Lou Williams can handle some of those minutes behind Patrick Beverley but he’s better suited in a scoring role. The Clippers have already been forced to get a little creative, letting rookie Terance Mann play backup point guard in training camp as well as the preseason opener. If Shamet can play a capable PG, that would certainly ease the burden on everyone else. Any value that Shamet provides beyond spacing will count as a major win.

Los Angeles Lakers

What does Dwight Howard have left?

After a nine-game campaign and dwindling on-court effectiveness in the years prior, it’s safe to declare Dwight Howard a completely unknown quantity. The Lakers seem to be going out of their way to replace JaVale McGee after a surprisingly productive season, and the Howard move and reported camp battle is the largest affront in a series of decisions.

If Howard can still play, even in a 20-minute role, and that’s a big ‘if,’ he’ll give the Lakers an athletic rim-runner that provides a big boost on the glass. That’s not inconsequential for a team that had to add the ancient Tyson Chandler last season. If he can’t, it’ll be a lot of unnecessary drama for nothing. It should be interesting to see how Howard is used, and how much he can make of his time on the floor.

Memphis Grizzlies

Can Brandon Clarke force his way in?

Ever since the draft, Brandon Clarke has been impossible to ignore. He was borderline dominant in Summer League and has continued to impress throughout training camp, and the rebuilding Grizzlies have to be overjoyed with his play so far. If there’s one dark cloud on the horizon for Clarke it’s that Memphis has two frontcourt pillars in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas locked into the starting five.

Although JV may not be a 30-minute per night player, he will start, and he will be a featured offensive player when he is on the floor. That, plus the presence of power forward types in Jae Crowder and Bruno Caboclo, will put playing time pressure on Clarke as he tries to carve out a role. That won’t be a monumental task given Clarke’s play so far and Memphis’ trajectory, but he can start to explore his ceiling quickly with a big preseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Robert Covington: Power Forward?

The Wolves are prepared to hand the starting shooting guard job to either Jarrett Culver or Josh Okogie, which will push everyone down a position. Barring a stunning bench demotion for Andrew Wiggins, that means we’re looking at Robert Covington opening the season as Minnesota’s starting power forward.

With the backdrop of Covington’s balky knees, it’s going to be a big challenge for a player who might need to add a little muscle to make it work in every possible matchup. Additionally, that might be suboptimal deployment for a player who has proven to be an All-NBA defender at the wing position. It’s at least a worthy experiment for a team that’s unlikely to make the playoffs while trying to find proper complements for Karl-Anthony Towns.

New Orleans Pelicans

Who loses out on the wings?

There’s an undeniable sense of excitement around the Pelicans this season as David Griffin has done his best to put together a roster that will thrive in an up-tempo attack. Though most of the attention has rightfully fallen to Zion Williamson, New Orleans is facing a bit of a logjam with all of their new acquisitions.

This is Jrue Holiday’s team, which means he’s locked into big minutes split between point guard and shooting guard. With Lonzo Ball in town, he’s likely to start at point guard, with Holiday opening games at the two. That figures to leave J.J. Redick out in the cold, unless the Pelicans opt to go super-small and move Brandon Ingram to the bench. Any way you slice it, someone who is used to starting will be forced to come off the bench. While you’re watching Zion jam on everyone, remember to keep an eye on Alvin Gentry’s rotations.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Andre Roberson

The Thunder have plenty of minutes available on the wings, which means that a healthy Roberson will have a great opportunity to reestablish himself as an elite defender. It has been over a year since he took the court thanks to a devastating injury and multiple setbacks, but his health could have a surprisingly large effect on the bottom half of the playoff bracket.

If the Thunder focus more on development than scrapping for a low playoff spot, Roberson’s presence can still help the team in a number of ways. Perhaps he plays himself into the team’s future plans, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander likely to slide back over to point guard as soon as Chris Paul leaves town (if not before). It’s possible that Roberson becomes a sought-after trade target as the arms race develops, with contenders itching to acquire a lockdown defender. Above all else, it’ll just be good to see him back on the court – it’s hard to root against someone so close to the end of an arduous road.

Phoenix Suns

Power forward battle

The Suns and a faint sense of hope: a tradition like no other. Phoenix went out and added a real point guard, as well as one of the top coaches on the market. Forward progress is being made but there remain a lot of questions to be answered about the team’s power forward rotation, and while there are a couple sensible choices there are a few options that would be Classic Suns.

In all likelihood the job will fall to either Dario Saric or Mikal Bridges. Young, talented players with versatility and upside. Perfect! With Kelly Oubre Jr. at small forward, however, it’s going to be a cramped rotation with these three, who would all benefit from extended minutes. That’s all well and good but the Suns also reached on forward Cam Johnson in the first round, and the organization may force him onto the floor to try and prove outsiders wrong. Mix in talk that newcomers Frank Kaminsky and Cheick Diallo could play some power forward as well (with Deandre Ayton and Aron Baynes consuming the entire center rotation), and it quickly becomes a mess.

Saric and Bridges need as much playing time as possible, but will they get it? And who will get the lion’s share? If Saric can take advantage of Bridges’ knee bone bruise, he can right the ship after a rocky campaign split between Philly and Minnesota.

Portland Trail Blazers

Reworking the forward rotation

The Blazers surprised pundits yet again last season, making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals despite losing Jusuf Nurkic amidst an outstanding campaign. While Portland will always carry a chip on its shoulder, it’s tough to see them authoring a repeat performance – even if Hassan Whiteside shows up on his best behavior and blossoms. Though most of the talk is centered on the improvement of other teams, the Blazers have some serious questions to answer at the forward positions.

Between Al-Farouq Aminu, Moe Harkless and Jake Layman, the Blazers will need to fill 70 minutes per game and 167 combined starts, exclusively at small forward and power forward. The addition of Kent Bazemore figures to help, though he has a mixed track record of success as a small forward. In 2015-16, he played 79% of his minutes at SF and was solid with 11.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 threes per game on .441 from the field and a plus-2.3 net rating.

The following year saw him take a step back with 58% of his minutes coming at SF, as he produced averages of 11.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.7 threes on .409 from the field with a minus-1.7 net rating. Bazemore has primarily been a shooting guard since, only appearing as a small forward in 4% of his minutes last season per Basketball-Reference.

The largely untested Zach Collins is expected to start at power forward, and teams will be targeting him as a perimeter defender early and often. Offensively, his .331 mark from distance falls short of Aminu’s .343 mark, and teams will probably dare him to become a volume 3-point shooter with Whiteside dominating the interior. Behind Collins and Bazemore are Rodney Hood, Mario Hezonja and Anthony Tolliver. Portland will be tested against the West’s all-world collection of small forwards and Terry Stotts might need to get creative.

Sacramento Kings

Trevor Ariza’s playing time

For the second straight season, Ariza has chosen to sign on with a team in the bottom half of the West. Last season you could make the case that he was trying to combine a big paycheck with his playing time needs, but this year looks like the beginning of a steep decline. The Kings have added a couple centers and re-signed Harrison Barnes to start at small forward, and Ariza will not be a threat to Marvin Bagley’s minutes at power forward.

Ariza has not averaged fewer than 33.9 mpg since an injury-plagued 2012-13 season, and was over 32.9 mpg in the three seasons prior to that. Unless Luke Walton shoehorns him into a rotation at the expense of younger players (which has caused rifts with Sacramento’s front office in the past), Ariza is going to have to accept a drastically diminished role. That can be a tough adjustment for a guy who can clearly still handle big minutes, as well as one who may be more of a natural fit at small forward than a higher-paid teammate. Keep an eye on how Walton juggles the forward group.

San Antonio Spurs

Poeltl Power

Jakob Poeltl’s season featured plenty of ups and downs. A training camp battle for the starting center spot didn’t go his way, and he would actually sit out three of the Spurs’ first six games, logging just 54 seconds in one of those appearances. Through the end of January Poeltl averaged 14.7 minutes per game. For a player who was thought of as the sort of cerebral hard worker that would fit the San Antonio system, it was a struggle.

Poeltl was able to gain some traction in the wake of Pau Gasol’s foot injury and subsequent release, averaging 19.7 minutes (and 1.3 blocks per game) from February onwards. Though he may always have trouble defending larger players, Poeltl has great rebounding and rim-protecting instincts and can move in space better than a lot of his peers. If he can hit the ground running this season it would be a big development for the Spurs, and it could even be his ticket to the starting lineup. Last season Poeltl averaged 3.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 0.2 blocks in 17.4 mpg through five preseason contests – let’s see if he can do better this time around.

Utah Jazz

Defensive drop-off?

The Jazz are undoubtedly a title contender after adding Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic to round out what was already a strong core. They’re far more dangerous offensively and now have a number of ways to topple opponents rather than grinding them down on defense and leaning on Donovan Mitchell for scoring. Although Utah will still hang its hat on defense, this offseason did bring some changes that could leave the Jazz somewhat exposed.

That largely occurs at the power forward spot, where an effective thunder and lightning combo of Derrick Favors and Jae Crowder has been replaced by Jeff Green and some miscast players. Beyond Green, the most likely candidates to see meaningful minutes at the four are Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles. Though Basketball-Reference credits Ingles with 66% of his minutes at the four spot last season, Bogdanovic and O’Neale check in at 4% and 2%, respectively. With rumors of Ingles moving to a sixth man role so Bogdanovic can start, that would put a pretty heavy burden on either the 33-year-old Green or a player who has extremely limited experience.

Quin Snyder is one of the league’s top coaches and there are few doubts that the Jazz will get it figured out, but the team’s defense might not be on autopilot this season. The preseason should be illuminating in terms of how that unit will need to adjust.

“Just, we go 7-for-44 [on threes],” Mike D’Antoni said, “it’s just going to be a tough night.”

Lost amid the Rockets’ depressing shooting performance and the ease with which Golden State went on to sweep the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals is that the champs trailed 54-43 at halftime of Game 7. It’s also hard to believe a healthy Chris Paul doesn’t find a way to blot Houston’s bleeding, just like he did a few days earlier while willing his team to a series-changing Game 5 victory. But a hamstring injury forced him to watch to the final two games of the Western Conference Finals from the bench, robbing the 14-year veteran of his best chance yet to compete for a Larry O’Brien trophy.

The Rockets expressed nearly as much hope for the future as disappointment for the present after their season ended in late May, and why not? Missing 37 threes, many of the makable variety, at home with the Finals on the line is a textbook case of result belying the process. There’s no reason to believe Houston would befall the same fate under the same circumstances next May. Lightning doesn’t strike twice.

Unfortunately, the realities of that phenomenon represent a problem for the Rockets, too. The expectation they would be nipping at the Warriors’ heels again a year from now hinged first and foremost on the assumption of staying the course. Golden State won’t ever be dethroned by star power alone, but the combination of talent, scheme, chemistry and continuity Houston managed to conjure in 2016-17. It will be very, very hard to come by again next season, and not necessarily because the Rockets are any worse off on paper.

James Ennis is a steal at the minimum. He’s an active, aggressive defender of both guards and wings, and should thrive playing in an uptempo system that limits his offensive responsibilities to sprinting the floor in transition, attacking close-outs and sneaking behind inattentive defenders for basket cuts. Ennis isn’t a knockdown shooter, but it’s not like he’s Tony Allen or Andre Roberson, either. He shot 35.3 percent on catch-and-shoot triples last season, per NBA.com/stats, and should find better looks playing next to James Harden and Chris Paul than he did with the Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies a season ago. If Ennis can forces defense to respect his jumper, there’s no reason why he won’t thrive with the Rockets.

“I think James Ennis could be really good,” D’Antoni said last week. “I think people are downplaying him.”

It’s the fact that Ennis, for all intents and purposes, has to replace both Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, back to the Clippers on a one-year deal worth half the mid-level exception, in Houston’s two-way attack that looms so potentially large. Carmelo Anthony, officially bought out by the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, isn’t as washed up as his brief stint with the Oklahoma City Thunder made him look. His jump-shooting struggles, so costly last season, seem more like a one-season blip rather than the new normal at this point, and there’s certainly something to be said for his ability to beat switches by bullying smaller defenders on the block – a wrinkle Houston lacked in its first season with Paul despite putting up the highest non-Warriors offensive rating of the decade.

Offensively, the Rockets should be better in 2018-19 whether Anthony embraces the diminished role he was so reluctant to accept with the Thunder. D’Antoni’s only obligation is to wins and losses; he’ll bench Anthony if the future Hall of Famer’s usage proves problematic. Worse is that cutting his minutes is the only way to mitigate the impact Anthony’s presence is primed to have on Houston’s defense.

It won’t matter all that much in the regular season. D’Antoni can stagger Harden, Paul and Anthony to ensure at least one of them is on the floor at all times, and toggle his rotation in crunch time to avoid slotting the latter on a dangerous opposing guard or wing. Of course, those determinations would be much easier to make if Anthony would drop his stubborn resistance to coming off the bench. Even if Anthony opens at small forward next to P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela up front, it’s highly unlikely Houston finishes most games with its starters. There are just too many places for the opposition to attack with both Harden and Anthony on the floor in winning time, and the reigning MVP certainly won’t be losing minutes to a thirty-something scorer who no longer has a position. It’s entirely plausible that Ennis, playing for his fifth team in as many seasons, is the one closing games at Anthony’s expense.

The answer should be much more simple in the playoffs, as Ryan Anderson learned the hard way last spring. Golden State isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Rockets are able to out-score opponents en route to a Western Conference Finals rematch, it won’t be enough to match the Warriors’ raw offensive fire power. Ariza was absolutely critical to Houston taking Steve Kerr‘s team to seven games in May. He guarded Durant and Curry for a combined 322 possessions in that series, nearly twice as many as the total of any other Rockets defender, according to Second Spectrum tracking data.

“There is no way we can do what we do without him,” assistant Irv Roland told ESPN’s Zach Lowe of Ariza midway through the Conference Finals.

Ennis is gritty enough to take that challenge head-on, but even doing so successfully wouldn’t mask the deficiencies met by Houston’s offseason. The Rockets found their most lasting means of success on defense against Golden State by downsizing, taking Capela off the floor, making Tucker their nominal center and switching across five positions. Without Ariza and Mbah a Moute, limited by lingering effects of a shoulder injury throughout the playoffs, getting to that lineup configuration could become a real chore for D’Antoni – and not just because Anthony lacks the lateral quickness to be included among them.

The only similar lineup that comes close to replicating the two-way effectiveness that posed such a real threat to the Warriors is Paul-Harden-Eric Gordon-Ennis-Tucker. Ennis is a less-reliable shooter than the notoriously-streaky Ariza, though, and Gerald Green, inspiring as he was last season, is hardly the kind of player a coach wants to count on come May. Even the newly-acquired Michael Carter-Williams is more playable in switch-everything situations than Anthony.

No matter. The loss of Ariza and Mbah a Moute always meant the Rockets would be forced to play differently going forward. Capped-out and with wings coming at a premium, Houston was never going to be able to replace them seamlessly. It’s not just the loss of two key contributors that stings, though; the addition of Anthony brings its own headaches, and compounds existing ones. Does that change the Rockets’ standing in the Western Conference? Probably not. Against the Warriors, though, their already-slim margin for error seems even thinner.

Kevin Durant led all scorers with 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting, also chipping in five rebounds, five assists and three blocks. It was another former MVP who keyed Golden State’s game-changing third-quarter run, though. Steph Curry scored 14 points and drained four triples in the third quarter alone, finishing a stellar all-around effort with 29 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists and four steals. Klay Thompson, fighting early foul trouble, scored 19 points on 13 shots, but his biggest impact came on the other end of the floor, where he slowed James Harden after the Rockets superstar got his team out to an early double-digit lead.

Harden’s numbers, 32 points, six rebounds, six assists and four steals, were stellar. He made several splash plays on defense, and was instrumental in Clint Capela, who had 20 points on 9-of-10 shooting, finding traction as a pick-and-roll dive man. But Harden, absent the steadying and energy-preserving presence of Chris Paul, struggled after a hot start, scoring 18 points on 8-of-23 from the field in the game’s last three quarters. Unfortunately for Harden, he wasn’t the only member of his team who couldn’t buy a jumper after pre-game adrenaline finally wore off.

Trevor Ariza, exhausted from the arduous task of beginning possessions guarding Curry, went scoreless in 42 minutes, missing all 12 of his shot attempts – nine of which came from beyond the arc. Eric Gordon was dominant as a playmaker at times, picking up Paul’s slack with 23 points and six assists, but went just 2-of-12 from three. Harden was 2-of-13. Basically, the numbers game upon which the Rockets relied to win 65 games and set numerous long-range shooting records failed them at the worst possible time. Houston was an abysmal 7-of-44 from 3-point range in Game 7, good for 15.9 percent shooting – its worst mark of the entire 2017-18 season.

Gordon’s 29-foot launch midway through the third quarter put his team up 42-28; it wasn’t for a full two quarters later until Houston drained its next three, from Tucker in the corner. Not only did the Rockets misfire on a playoff record 27 consecutive triples between those makes, but Golden State had suddenly turned a 14-point hole into a 10-point cushion. There was just nothing Houston could do stop the bleeding when its threes, many of which were of the catch-and-shoot variety, refused to drop over and over, and Curry was simultaneously doing stuff like this.

Steph Curry scores 11 straight points for the @warriors! #DubNation #NBAPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/YDR4XG1on5

— NBA (@NBA) May 29, 2018

The Warriors outscored the Rockets 33-15 in the third quarter, taking a seven-point lead into the final stanza. That’s when Durant took over. After forcing the issue on offense early and being bullied on the glass by Capela and P.J. Tucker, Durant scored 11 points on 4-of-6 shooting the fourth quarter, ensuring Houston’s long-shot comeback bid would fall short and looking every bit the reigning Finals MVP.

“Our talent took over,” Steve Kerr said. “It’s as simple as that.”

KD from downtown!

@NBAonTNT pic.twitter.com/LQjldYIp5r

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 29, 2018

The fact it came to that at all for Golden State to beat Houston with a frustrated Paul watching from the bench was surprising. The Warriors had six turnovers in the first quarter. Tucker, valiant in another defeat, had as many offensive rebounds in the first half by himself as they did in total. Draymond Green, awesome as he was as a distributor and back-line defender, went 0-of-5 from 3-point range on wide-open shots . Golden State resorted to intentionally fouling Capela in both the second and fourth quarters, first to cut into a lead and then to protect one of its own.

Stuff like that is hardly befitting the Warriors’ status as heavy championship favorites and a modern-day dynasty. The Rockets deserve immense credit for pushing them to the edge, and then forcing Curry and Durant to keep their team from falling. Houston isn’t a gimmick. If Paul was healthy, perhaps a different team would be representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. But it’s Golden State again, and a familiar foe awaits.

“It’s going to be a fun one, an exciting one,” Durant said of another matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron’s playing – I don’t even know, I can’t even describe how he’s playing. It’s like next level basketball, so we got our work cut out for us.”

That remains to be seen. If it indeed proves the case, though, the Warriors, having staved off elimination twice, can take solace from knowing they again rose to the occasion when there was no other option.

The turnover battle

Golden State has committed four turnovers in each of the past three first quarters. Houston, by no coincidence, has taken leads of six, nine and 17 points, respectively, into each second quarter. Some of those mistakes have been by commission. The Warriors come into every game preaching pace first and foremost, instructions that sometimes serve as a vehicle for their worst offensive tendencies to materialize from the jump. That was certainly the case in Games 5 and 6, when Golden State, trying their damndest to beat the Rockets’ ziplock defense with tempo in the halfcourt and transition, threw the ball all over the floor.

Fortunately for the Warriors, it’s not like Houston has done much better protecting the ball. The Rockets had 21 turnovers on Saturday, upping their average in losses to 19, a whopping six more giveaways than they commit in victories. Golden State scores 22.7 points off those turnovers in Houston losses, versus 13.3 in wins. The Warriors turnover disparity in wins and losses, and the Rockets’ ability to capitalize off of them, is similarly stark.

It’s not revelatory to suggest that turnovers and their consequences are a reliable indicator of winner and loser. But Houston and Golden State have made a habit of trading careless miscues, and whichever team avoids them early will be in the driver’s seat for the Finals. Not every sizable first-quarter lead can be overcome.

Golden State’s defensive focus

After a 29-point victory that saved his team’s season, Kerr couldn’t help but take issue with how the Warriors began Game 6 defensively.

“I thought it was kind of a strange game because our defense has been really good throughout the series, and tonight it was awful to start the game,” he said. “We lost people in transition. We didn’t communicate. We gave up wide-open threes. They scored 39 points in the first quarter. It was kind of a head-scratcher.”

Golden State improved markedly as the game wore on, of course, forcing Houston into an 87.9 offensive rating and 21 turnovers, both series-worsts. Draymond Green wreaked havoc all over the floor, Klay Thompson made James Harden work for all he got and the Rockets’ transition attack, deadly early, produced just three of its 24 points after halftime. The Warriors, with the aid of Chris Paul‘s absence, dominated Houston defensively following the first quarter, when they allowed a postseason-high 39 points and eight Houston triples.

It doesn’t take a nuanced basketball eye to see how the Rockets got out to such a scorching hot start, either. Just as Kerr alluded, Golden State took a shockingly casual approach to stopping Houston early, ceding open shot after open shot not by virtue of great offense beating good defense, but often by any discernible lack of resistance whatsoever. They routinely failed to matchup in the open floor and miscommunicated on switches, leading to easy looks from Houston’s most dangerous offensive players. Mistakes like these are unacceptable at any time in the playoffs, but especially during the sixth game of a series that’s left little room for major schematic adjustments from night to night.

Conventional wisdom says there’s no way the Warriors play such lackadaisical defense in the opening moments of a road game that will decide the Western Conference. But that nagging lack of focus until circumstances of time and score have forced the switch to be flipped has plagued them throughout this title defense, including Saturday night’s elimination game. Will Golden State fall victim to that tendency again in Game 7? If so, it should prove much, much harder to come from behind at Toyota Center than it did at Oracle Arena.

The offensive impact of Clint Capela

Capela, singled-out by some as a potential bellwether before the Conference Finals began, has hardly been as much for the Rockets. He’s yet to play more than 31 minutes in this series, and has the worst on-court rating, -11.7, of any Houston regular. Mike D’Antoni has consistently downsized in crunch time, too, leaving Capela on the bench in favor of slotting P.J. Tucker at center. Those developments aren’t necessarily the fault of Capela alone. He’s been effective switching onto perimeter players both on and off the ball, and consistently made a major difference on the offensive glass. Houston’s offensive rebounding percentage dips from 23.1 with him on the floor, a team-best, all the way down to 15.5 when he’s off it. And Tucker, as awesome as he’s been defensively against the Warriors, can’t come close to duplicating Capela’s influence at the rim on either side of the floor.

With or without Paul, the Rockets need every means of offense they can muster to lighten the load on Harden. He used 42.2 percent of Houston’s possessions in the first half of Game 6, a workload that had clearly taken its toll by the time the future MVP needed to rescue his team from another Golden State onslaught. A few easy baskets from Capela, via length and athleticism more than anything else, would go a long way toward keeping Harden fresh, even if it’s his dribble penetration that allows Capela to get them in the first place.

The Harden-Capela connection hasn’t been quite as potent in the Conference Finals as it was in the first two rounds of the playoffs. In 10 games against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz, Harden assisted Capela for 3.7 field goals per game. That number’s nearly been cut in half versus Golden State, with basketball’s deadliest ball handler-roll man tandem teaming up for just 12 of Capela’s scores through six games. Why? The switch-everything nature of this series is a contributing factor there, obviously, but Green’s innate ability to stymie that two-man game, with perfectly-timed contests and multiple efforts, looms far larger.

Capela took just three shots over 29 minutes of play in Game 6, and had a team-worst offensive rating of 67.7. If Paul can’t play in Game 7 and Capela remains a non-factor offensively, the Rockets will be fighting an uphill battle. Capela’s defense and rebounding, good as its been, just won’t be enough by itself in a do-or-die game against Green and the reigning champions.

The back end of the Warriors’ rotation

Looney has proven himself a reliable, if undeniably limited, regular for Golden State. Of the 24 Warriors duos that have logged at least 40 minutes in this series, Green and Looney’s net rating of +17.6 is the highest. The second, third and fourth-ranked tandems include Looney, too. Still, his sustained success is an anomaly with regard to the surplus of traditional big men at Kerr’s disposal, a situation complicated by the absence of Andre Iguodala over the last three games.

“We’re operating under the assumption that he won’t play,” Kerr said of Iguodala’s availability for Game 7.

As a result of injuries to Iguodala and Pat McCaw, who got garbage-time minutes on Saturday after missing the previous eight weeks, Golden State has been forced to play two of Looney, Jordan Bell and David West for brief stretches when Green needs a blow. The Warriors have gotten away with it so far. In 17 total minutes two big men have shared the floor with Green on the bench, Golden State has outscored the Rockets by five. Still, that’s not a configuration Kerr is comfortable with due to Houston constantly screening and re-screening the weakest perimeter defender onto Harden, then spacing the floor with shooters around him. Playing a pair of non-shooters, especially bigs, only makes it easier for the Rockets’ help defenders to load up to the ball, complicating matters for Kevin Durant and Steph Curry.

There’s a real chance Kerr avoids these lineups altogether, earmarking more time for Shaun Livingston, who presents his own problems offensively, or giving McCaw a chance at rotation minutes. Either way, every possession Green is off the floor is one Houston needs to win – and each of those that come with two Warriors big men playing together represents a golden opportunity to do just that.

Klay Thompson, on-ball screener

The Warriors first found traction using Thompson as a screener on the ball in Game 5, and enjoyed even more success in that regard on Saturday night. Four of his whopping 14 3-point attempts came after he set picks at the top of the floor for Durant. The Rockets don’t want to deal with that action any differently than they do other screens, but switching seamlessly between two of the game’s several best shooters, without sacrificing an inch of space, is an especially difficult task under the stress of high ball screens. Thompson confused Houston by running into picks and quickly slipping out of them, and used similar deception to fake more deliberate screens, searching for real contact before again scurrying into open space.

In Game 4, Golden State deployed Thompson as a ball-screen partner for Curry, at one point using him in a staggered screen with Bell. After Bell rolls to the rim, taking away the most immediate source of help defense, Thompson slips into that vacated area for a catch-and-shoot.

The Utah Jazz blitzed the Rockets in Game 2 of the second round by intentionally avoiding contact on every pick-and-roll, and D’Antoni’s team adjusted the next time out by initiating switches with even more speed and aggression. Doing so takes a special type of activity and communication against any ball-screen tandem, but especially one involving Thompson and either of his MVP teammates. Golden State will bust out this gambit at least four or five times in Game 7; how Houston responds, and how close defenders are able to stay to Thompson, could go a long way toward deciding its outcome.

The weaponization of Kevon Looney

After Iguodala went down with a knee contusion, the Rockets committed even further to cheating away from the Warriors’ least-threatening offensive players, overloading the strong side of the floor with an extra defender to ensure Durant and Curry see color on isolations and pick-and-rolls. Houston has largely decided against guarding multiple Golden State players, but none to the same extent it has Kevon Looney, who’s struggled to take advantage of attention focused elsewhere. Looney is shooting just 10-of-19 in the restricted area in this series, a troublesome success rate for a non-shooting big man regardless of the ease of those attempts. And to be clear, Looney has missed what seems like two or three bunnies every game.

Rather than continuing to feed him the ball near the rim and hope for different results, Golden State, getting back to its motion-heavy roots, has weaponized Looney off the ball over the last two games. There’s just not much the Rockets can do when Looney gets the ball on the perimeter without his defender in sight, and Curry or Thompson immediately sprints off him into a dribble hand-off – catching the would-be help defender woefully out of position to get an effective contest.

Look where P.J. Tucker and Harden, Looney’s defenders, are stationed in the clips below when Thompson and Curry take his hand-offs and launch.

Shrinking the floor to make life hard on the Warriors’ stars is absolutely crucial to Houston’s hopes of stopping them. The Rockets can’t afford to treat Looney, Green, Livingston, Bell and more like legitimate scoring threats, risking Durant and Curry taking over against true one-on-one defense. The blueprint for beating Golden State has always been making role players beat you. Looney won’t be able to do it as a scorer, but weaponizing him as a passer in Games 5 and 6 has helped the Warriors re-discover their lost sense of offensive identity – something they’ll need to hold onto facing elimination on the road.

The fickle nature of jump-shooting

The difference between a winner-take-all Game 7 and this series having already ended is a missed wide-open triple by Quinn Cook with under a minute remaining in a one-point game. He couldn’t connect on two other great looks from three during earlier portions Golden State’s Game 5 loss, either. If just one of those tries goes down, from a 44.2 percent 3-point shooter, the Warriors might have closed out the Rockets on Saturday, using the next few days for rest and rehabilitation ahead of a fourth straight NBA Finals opposite LeBron James.

You can play that “what-if” game over and over under duress of the playoffs, where the value of individual possessions is magnified to its fullest and rightful extent. Cook, naturally, isn’t the only role player who could have swung this series by knocking down one or two more open looks from the perimeter. Trevor Ariza is shooting just 7-of-24 on 3-point attempts against the Warriors when there isn’t a defender within four feet of him, per NBA.com/stats. Draymond Green has been even worse, going 1-of-10 on threes the league website defines as “wide open.”

The stars will get ample opportunities to shine, and odds are they will. Big-time players are at their best in big-time moments, the old adage goes. But the NBA is still a make-or-miss league on the macro level; whichever side’s supporting pieces happen to hit their open looks is often the slim margin between winning and losing.

That’s an unfortunate reality of the utmost team game in major professional sports. And on Monday, it will probably decide who’s holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy at season’s end.